Alternative measures of "confirmation" or "evidential support" have been proposed to express the impact of ascertaining one event on the credibility of another. We report an experiment that compares the adequacy of several such measures as descriptions of confirmation judgment in a probabilistic context.

Two field studies form the basis of this article. The major purposes of Study 1 were to examine significant life experiences affecting the cultivation of environmental activists in eastern Taiwan, and to reconstruct the life paths followed by those active people who engaged in effective environmental action. 40 usable autobiographical memories…

Purpose: The development of adaptable and intelligent educational systems is widely considered one of the great challenges in scientific research. Among key elements for building advanced training systems, an important role is played by methodologies chosen for knowledge representation. In this scenario, the introduction of ontology formalism can…

This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

Griffiths and Tenenbaum (2006) asked individuals to make predictions about the duration or extent of everyday events (e.g., cake baking times), and reported that predictions were optimal, employing Bayesian inference based on veridical prior distributions. Although the predictions conformed strikingly to statistics of the world, they reflect…

As item response models gain increased popularity in large-scale educational and measurement testing situations, many studies have been conducted on the development and applications of unidimensional and multidimensional models. Recently, attention has been paid to IRT-based models with an overall ability dimension underlying several ability…

Fit of the model to the data is important if the benefits of item response theory (IRT) are to be obtained. In this study, the authors compared model selection results using the likelihood ratio test, two information-based criteria, and two Bayesian methods. An example illustrated the potential for inconsistency in model selection depending on…

This technical paper examines some large and unusual movements for data in the 2007 VET (Vocational Education Training) Provider Collection by comparison with 2006. Changes in the patterns of courses undertaken explain most of the divergence between students, enrolments and hours. Appendices include: (1) Derivation of the decomposition; (2) Tables…

An approach to handle partial compliance behavior using principal stratification is presented and applied to a subset of the longitudinal data from the New York City School Choice Scholarship Program, a randomized experiment designed to assess the effects of private schools versus public schools on academic achievement. The initial analysis…

In 23 states, members of the high school class of 2008 were required to pass a state high school exit examination (HSEE) to earn regular high school diplomas. Proponents of these policies claim that they improve student academic achievement, although critics argue that they reduce the quality of instruction without raising academic achievement.…

The capacity of Bayesian methods in estimating complex statistical models is undeniable. Bayesian data analysis is seen as having a range of advantages, such as an intuitive probabilistic interpretation of the parameters of interest, the efficient incorporation of prior information to empirical data analysis, model averaging and model selection.…

Clinical decision-making is challenging mainly because of two factors: (1) patient conditions are often complicated with partial and changing information; (2) people have cognitive biases in their decision-making and information-seeking. Consequentially, misdiagnoses and ineffective use of resources may happen. To better support clinical…

Objective:This report extends earlier accounts by addressing the effects of the Strong African American Families (SAAF) program across 65 months. Two hypotheses were tested: (a) Rural African American youths randomly assigned to participate in SAAF would demonstrate lower rates of alcohol use than would control youths more than 5 years later, and…

Model-based cluster analysis is a new clustering procedure to investigate population heterogeneity utilizing finite mixture multivariate normal densities. It is an inferentially based, statistically principled procedure that allows comparison of nonnested models using the Bayesian information criterion to compare multiple models and identify the…

Anomaly detection is an important and indispensable aspect of any computer security mechanism. Ad hoc and mobile networks consist of a number of peer mobile nodes that are capable of communicating with each other absent a fixed infrastructure. Arbitrary node movements and lack of centralized control make them vulnerable to a wide variety of…