The Poisson probability distribution is seen to provide a mathematical model from which useful information can be obtained in practical applications. The distribution and some situations to which it applies are studied, and ways to find answers to practical questions are noted. The unit includes exercises and a model exam, and provides answers to…

To solve problems of causality and measurement in educational research, this paper combines seven variables into a proposed model of educational productivity on achievement tests. The authors first review psychological models of educational production that relate learning to aptitude and environment, and note that these models do not allow for…

To assess the productivity of 167 Houston elementary schools, researchers applied a fractional linear programming procedure called Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to each school's inputs and outputs. School output was measured by third- and sixth-graders' scores on the Iowa Test of Basic Skills (ITBS). Input resources comprised pupil…

An empirical study was conducted in order to obtain treatment effect estimates with the Special Regression model for groups in which there was no treatment. General mathematics test scores were obtained from 730 ninth graders in city schools somewhat similar to Title I schools, but in which no special treatments were given. Hypothetical…

The performance of the University of Arizona College of Medicine's graduating class of 1976 on the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) Parts I and II was analyzed in a structural equation model. Although the primary emphasis of this paper is toward model development, the effects of several background and demographic variables such as age,…

This document was prepared in connection with a three-year longitudinal study of career expectations of high school students conducted to explain scientifically the process by which youth form career expectations, e.g., educational, occupational, and income expectations. Divided into six chapters, this document contains a theoretical rationale for…

A MODEL IS CONSTRUCTED TO DETERMINE THE BEST PROPORTION OF FORMAL AND ON-THE-JOB TRAINING IN MILITARY OCCUPATIONS. SPECIAL CONSIDERATION IS GIVEN TO THE UNIQUE SITUATION OF ENLISTED PERSONNEL'S FIXED LENGTH OF SERVICE, THE SMALL PERCENTAGE OF RE-ENLISTMENT, AND THE NECESSITY OF TRAINING ALL ENLISTEES FOR ASSIGNED OCCUPATIONS. THE MODEL FORMULA…

The Joreskog and Sorbom LISREL (linear structural relations) method is investigated as an alternative to regression analysis in studies of aptitude-treatment interactions (ATI), to solve problems caused by unreliability of measurements and by large sets of variables. A study reported by M.J. Behr is reanalyzed. This study investigated relations…

Stochastic difference equations of the Box-Jenkins form provide an adequate family of models on which to base the stochastic theory of human growth processes, but conventional time series identification methods do not apply to available data sets. A method to identify structure and parameters of stochastic difference equation models of human…

Various models that have been devised to evaluate the performance of information retrieval systems are reviewed. Such models fall into three categories: (1) evaluation from the viewpoint of the user, who is primarily concerned with how well the system responds to his query; (2) evaluation from the system operator's standpoint, which focuses on the…

The development of a probabilistic model for validating Gange's learning hierarchies is described. Learning hierarchies are defined as paired networks of intellectual tasks arranged so that a substantial amount of positive transfer occurs from tasks in a lower position to connected ones in a higher position. This probabilistic validation technique…

This paper examines the feasibility of distributing Elementary and Secondary Education Act Title I aid among school districts according to the educational achievement of pupils in each district. The "predicted achievement method" would permit the distribution of aid on the basis of population characteristics in a way that, on average,…

The part-time job market now employs about 12.5 million persons who are voluntary part timers--those who customarily work one to thirty-four hours a week on their own volition. Data from the Current Population Survey (March-May, 1973) was used to examine the cross-sectional distribution of the employment and wages of part timers, and an analysis…

Mathematical models of judgment policy are compared in evaluating 625 Cadet Performance Reports during a single rating cycle. Linear and nonlinear regressions are used to describe the cues most important in determining overall ratings. In addition, performance rating policy is compared with stated policy for each of forty cadet raters. In general,…

The Design of Training Systems (DOTS) project was initiated by the Department of Defense (DOD) to develop tools for the effective management of military training organizations. Phase 2 involved the design and development of three computer-based mathematical models, described in detail in this report. The models described are the System…