Describes the "Buffon's Needle" problem, which is calculating the probability that a needle will cross one of two separated lines. Calculates the probability when the length of the needle is greater than the space of the two lines. Provides an analytic solution and the results of a computer simulation. (YP)

Some uncomplicated illustrations of how probability yields results that seem in conflict with traditional intuition are given. (MNS)

Investigates the problem of finding the expected number of questions necessary to identify 1 out of a set of 30 attribute blocks. Solutions include the use of a tree diagram or a computer simulation. Generalizes the problem for increased numbers of attributes. (MDH)

Describes a simulation-oriented computer microworld named CHANCE used to overcome the limitations of physical materials for experiments in teaching and learning introductory probability. Results of a teaching experiment conducted with four middle school and high school students are discussed. (15 references) (LZ)

Eight experiments examined whether certain human problem-solving mechanisms should be expected to represent probability information in terms of frequency. Findings are consistent with literature indicating that frequentist representations eliminate various cognitive biases, including overconfidence, the conjunction fallacy, and base rate neglect.…

Discusses student difficulties with probability concepts and argues that a key difficulty is the lack of transferability of pupils' curriculum-based knowledge. Presents several probability game activities to help students with these difficulties. (MKR)

Suggests a new approach to environmental protection that requires users of environmental resources to post a bond adequate to cover uncertain future environmental damages. Summarized as the "precautionary polluter pays principle," or the 4P approach, it shifts the burden of proof and the cost of uncertainty from the public to the…

In three studies, children and adolescents were questioned about vignettes that raised issues involved with decision making, such as precedents, the role of probability, open-minded thinking, and errors of omission. Decision-making biases in children's responses were scored. Some age and group differences were found. (BC)

Discusses the mathematics of weighted voting schemes, including representative government. Shows how power is a decreasing function of population size and how tiny parties can have the same power as large constituencies. (MKR)

The article by W. K. Estes marks a turning point in the mathematical learning theory movement. The central constructs were stimulus variability, stimulus sampling, and stimulus response association by contiguity, in a framework enabling prediction of response probability and latency. (SLD)

Develops mathematical models to characterize the probability of continued use of an integrated office automation system and tests these models on longitudinal data collected from 210 individuals using the IBM Professional Office System (PROFS) at the University of California at Berkeley. Analyses using survival functions and proportional hazard…

A Bayesian solution is suggested to the problem of jointly estimating "k is greater than 1" binomial parameters in conjunction with the problem of testing, in a Bayesian sense, the hypothesis "H" of parametric homogeneity. Applications of the estimates are illustrated with several types of data, including ophthalmological…

Examines research on the observed values of retrieval effectiveness obtained in searches of files of nearest neighbor document clusters. Results show interdocument similarities used to generate nearest-neighbor clusters are significantly different from randomly generated clusters. (Contains 14 references.) (EAM)

Presents results of simulations that were conducted to test the effects of errors in estimation of individual term probabilities on the performance of a probabilistic information retrieval (PIR) system. Assigning index terms to documents is described; an information retrieval system called Helpnet is explained; and relevance, ranking, and…

Given a Masters partial credit item with n known step difficulties, conditions are stated for the existence of a set of (locally) independent Rasch binary items such that their raw score and the partial credit raw score have identical probability density functions. (Author/SLD)