We tested a method for solving Bayesian reasoning problems in terms of spatial relations as opposed to mathematical equations. Participants completed Bayesian problems in which they were given a prior probability and two conditional probabilities and were asked to report the posterior odds. After a pretraining phase in which participants completed…

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) admit unconfounded design-based inference--randomization largely justifies the assumptions underlying statistical effect estimates--but often have limited sample sizes. However, researchers may have access to big observational data on covariates and outcomes from RCT non-participants. For example, data from A/B…

Intonation plays an integral role in comprehending spoken language. Listeners can rapidly integrate intonational information to predictively map a given pitch accent onto the speaker's likely referential intentions. We use mouse tracking to investigate two questions: (a) how listeners draw predictive inferences based on information from…

Native language acquisition is one of the initial processes undertaken by the human brain in the infant stage of life. The linguist community has always been interested in finding the method, which is adopted by the human brain to acquire the native language. Word segmentation in one of the most important tasks in acquiring the language.…

Calls for empirical investigations of the Common Core standards (CCSSs) for English Language Arts have been widespread, particularly in the area of text complexity in the primary grades (e.g., Hiebert & Mesmer "Educational Research," 42(1), 44-51, 2013). The CCSSs mention that qualitative methods (such as Fountas and Pinnell) and…

Purpose: This study introduces a framework to produce very short versions of the MacArthur-Bates Communicative Development Inventories (CDIs) by combining the Bayesian-inspired approach introduced by Mayor and Mani (2019) with an item response theory-based computerized adaptive testing that adapts to the ability of each child, in line with…

Research Findings: Conversing abstract concepts boost children's language learning. Despite the numerous studies on the linguistic environment of early childhood education settings (ECE), most of this work disregards contextual factors that may influence abstract conversations and omits characteristics of children's verbal participation in these…

The ability of automatically modeling learners' personalities is an important step in building adaptive learning environments. Several studies showed that knowing the personality of each learner can make the learning interaction with the provided learning contents and activities within learning systems more effective. However, the traditional…

In high-stakes, large-scale, standardized tests with certain time limits, examinees are likely to engage in either one of the three types of behavior (e.g., van der Linden & Guo, 2008; Wang & Xu, 2015): solution behavior, rapid guessing behavior, and cheating behavior. Oftentimes examinees do not always solve all items due to various…

Social learning has been shown to be an evolutionarily adaptive strategy, but it can be implemented via many different cognitive mechanisms. The adaptive advantage of social learning depends crucially on the ability of each learner to obtain relevant and accurate information from informants. The source of informants' knowledge is a particularly…

Humans excel in categorization. Yet from a computational standpoint, learning a novel probabilistic classification task involves severe computational challenges. The present paper investigates one way to address these challenges: assuming class-conditional independence of features. This feature independence assumption simplifies the inference…

Interest in Bayesian analysis of item response theory (IRT) models has grown tremendously due to the appeal of the paradigm among psychometricians, advantages of these methods when analyzing complex models, and availability of general-purpose software. Possible models include models which reflect multidimensionality due to designed test structure,…

The structure of natural languages give rise to many dependencies in the linear sequences of words, and within words themselves. Detecting these dependencies is arguably critical for young children in learning the underlying structure of their language. There is considerable evidence that human adults and infants are sensitive to the statistical…

Current developments in the statistics community suggest that modern statistics education should be structured holistically, that is, by allowing students to work with real data and to answer concrete statistical questions, but also by educating them about alternative frameworks, such as Bayesian inference. In this article, we describe how we…

This paper deals with a brief history of probability theory and its applications to Jacob Bernoulli's famous law of large numbers and theory of errors in observations or measurements. Included are the major contributions of Jacob Bernoulli and Laplace. It is written to pay the tricentennial tribute to Jacob Bernoulli, since the year 2013…