Probability-based inference in complex networks of interdependent variables is an active topic in statistical research, spurred by such diverse applications as forecasting, pedigree analysis, troubleshooting, and medical diagnosis. This paper concerns the role of Bayesian inference networks for updating student models in intelligent tutoring…

The role of the response probability convention in reporting results from the 1992 National Adult Literacy Survey is explored, using interviews with more than 26,000 adults and young adults. In order to summarize what respondents of a particular proficiency can do, it is convenient to adopt a convention for a sufficient response probability that…

For much of the twentieth century, Markov theory and Markov processes have been widely accepted as valid ways to view statistical variables and parameters. In the complex realm of online searching, where researchers are always seeking the route to the best search strategies and the most powerful query terms and sequences, Markov process analysis…

Item response theory (IRT) is based on the assumption that a direct relationship exists between an examinee's total performance on a set of items and the difficulty of each item on the test. The Rasch model represents this relationship mathematically on an equal interval scale. This paper argues that IRT, under the required conditions, provides…

A Bayesian approach for finding latent classes in data is discussed. The approach uses finite mixture models to describe the underlying structure in the data and demonstrate that the possibility of using full joint probability models raises interesting new prospects for exploratory data analysis. The concepts and methods discussed are illustrated…

The National Household Education Survey (NHES) is a data collection system of the National Center for Education Statistics. The NHES is a telephone survey of the noninstitutionalized civilian population using households selected using random digit dialing methods. Approximately 60,000 households are screened for each administration, and people who…

The present investigation employed Kahneman and Tversky's (1973) "Cab Problem" and the "Shuttle Problem" (a modified version of the former) in two separate experiments to further examine the impact of several variables on the utilization of base-rate information, and to what extent gender is related to the utilization of…

With the Seeing and Thinking Mathematically materials, students learn mathematics by doing mathematics, by using and connecting mathematical ideas, and by actively constructing their own understandings. In this unit students learn to see probability through a mathematical lens by exploring and creating games and simulations and by applying the…

Two colleges of the University of Alabama have established the Alabama Quantitative Literacy (AQL) Workshop in an effort to prepare teachers to teach statistical techniques accurately and effectively and to enhance the ability of teachers to create new activity-based lessons. The AQL Workshop aims to achieve goals of the National Council of…

In a complex sampling scheme it is desirable to select the primary sampling units (PSUs) without replacement to prevent duplications in the sample. Since the estimation of the sampling variances is more complicated when the PSUs are selected without replacement, L. Kish (1965) recommends that the variance be calculated using the formulas…

Describes a collision probability demonstration that emphasizes the value of behavior which minimizes traffic randomness. (LS)

Activities in which the claims of psychics are evaluated can be used in probability classes. (SD)

Arguing that the teaching of stochastic processes should reflect the experience and reality of the student, the author urges concentration on fundamental ideas. The development of intuition should be encouraged, and to this end continuity in teaching and a spiralled curriculum are important. (SD)

After studying a unit on probability students "put it all together" by analyzing outcomes of real and computer-simulated games of craps. FORTRAN and APL programs for generation of the games are provided in this article. (SD)