Comments on E. G. Creamer and Don G. Creamer's article "Predicting Successful Organizational Change: Case Studies." Notes leadership placement in student affairs is logical but unfortunately not probable if the change is institutionwide. Raises questions about the conclusions drawn, although states a liking for the model. (ABL)

Discusses how the discovery of chaos has created a new paradigm in scientific modeling and how findings are contributing to changes in thought about many different branches of science. Includes explanations and examples of how chaotic behavior can be understood. (ML)

A realistic problem is presented, computing the probability of winning a sports playoff series if the probability if winning a single game is known. Only simple permutation formulas and some basic logic are required to solve the problem. Two computer programs and a discussion of solution methods are included. (MNS)

Suggestions for five activities are presented. They include: ideas for several student problem-solving projects; preparing a flowsheet and program for 10 coin and dice games; using word processor formatting commands to create word designs; creating sounds; and writing a program to print out sums indefinitely. (JN)

Explains an application of matrix algebra which involves probability matrices and weather predictions. Using probabilities of sunny or cloudy weather students can determine the effect weather on day one will have on subsequent days. (DH)

Four answers to a probability problem involving a perceived coincidence are discussed. (MNS)

Identifies key questions concerning children's intuitions and conceptions of probabilistic notions. Research on the theoretical framework for probability studies, misconceptions and strategies, and pupil attainment is reviewed, and the methodology is evaluated. Finally, implications for classroom practice are discussed. (MNS)

A random arrangement of two contrasting colors in a 20x20 array is used to facilitate students' understanding of the notions of randomness, independence, and long-run frequency. It can also be used to test some prevalent errors in probabilistic reasoning. Three activities are described. (MNS)

Self-reported reading ability of parents of 174 reading-disabled children and of 182 controls was used to estimate the probability that a child will become reading disabled. Using Bayesian inverse probability analysis, it was found that the risk for reading disability is increased substantially if either parent has had difficulty in learning to…

This research aims to study the ways in which "local" events of randomness, based on experiencing the outcome of individual events, can be developed into "global" understandings that focus on an aggregated view of probability (e.g. probability of an event). The findings reported in the paper are part of a broader study that adopted a strategy of…

This paper introduces the reader to the concepts of binomial probability and simulation. A spreadsheet is used to illustrate these concepts. Random number generators are great technological tools for demonstrating the concepts of probability. Ideas of approximation, estimation, and mathematical usefulness provide numerous ways of learning…

Between November 2004, and March 2005, the Center for Civic Education conducted a survey of alumni from the We the People: The Citizen and the Constitution program. Altogether, 522 alumni responded, ranging in age from 18-34. The primary focus of the study was on voting and other forms of political engagement. Due to self-selection by respondents,…

An active area in psychometric research is coordinated task design and statistical analysis built around cognitive models. Compared with classical test theory and item response theory, there is often less information from observed data about the measurement-model parameters. On the other hand, there is more information from the grounding…

This book helps teachers define good questions, offers tips on how to create their own good questions, and includes a wide variety of questions for use in the classroom. Each chapter of the book is organized by subject area and age group so that teachers can locate the topic their class is working on, then select probing, thought-provoking…