The development of probability judgment is explained in terms of working memory, composed of four types of storage operations and three types of processing operations. Age changes in probability judgment were related to changes in frequency retrieval, which stem from changes in constraints on work-space capacity. (Author/RD)

Discusses problems with the use of stochastic (probabilistic) models for the analysis of juvenile offense data. Analyzes longitudinal data for White and non-White delinquents which show significant evidence of offense specialization and a random distribution of offenses if no specialization occurs. (Author/GC)

Concepts of probability and statistics are discussed in terms of common occurrences and objects. (MK)

The PM statistical index, which indicates the probability that a person will belong to a particular clinical class, is described. The coefficient is similar to the G index but is easier to compute. An empirical example is presented. (JKS)

Wilcox has described three probability models which characterize a single test item in terms of a population of examinees (ED 156 718). This note indicates indicates that similar models can be derived which characterize a single examinee in terms of an item domain. A numerical illustration is given. (Author/JKS)

The computer is used to simulate repetitions of games used in teaching expected value. Details of the games and the computer programs are given. (MP)

Describes a new method of evaluating multiple choice examinations by measuring the entropy state of a student's examination above the "thermal background level," and shows that the entropy grade contains standard scoring as a special case. (Author/GA)

Each of 96 college females and 95 college males were randomly assigned to either a high or a low subjective probability of outstanding performance condition. The findings are contrary to predictions based on the fear of success hypothesis. Implications of the results for the fear of success hypothesis are discussed. (Author)

A hypothesis testing and estimation procedure, Crossing SIBTEST, is presented for detecting crossing differential item functioning (DIF), which exists when the difference in probabilities of a correct answer for two examinee groups changes signs as ability level is varied. The procedure estimates the matching subtest score at which crossing…

Presents a Monte Carlo simulation on probability using a telephone directory as a pseudorandom-number generator. Claims that Monte Carlo simulations offer a way to teach probability concretely and with understanding and that students enjoy the probability experiments. (ASK)

Presents a sample of Probability Carnival activities and suggests how they might be adapted for the classroom. (KHR)

Describes a study that investigated document retrieval relevance based on document length in an experimental text collection. Topics include term weighting and document ranking, retrieval strategies such as the vector-space cosine match, and a modified technique called the pivoted cosine normalization. (LRW)

Investigates an interesting application of probability in the world of sports. Considers the role of permutations in the lottery system used by the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the United States to determine the order in which nonplayoff teams select players from the college ranks. Presents a lesson on this topic in which students work…

Describes a FORTRAN software program that calculates the probability of an observed difference between agreement measures obtained from two independent sets of raters. An example illustrates the use of the DIFFER program in evaluating undergraduate essays. (Author/SLD)