How can we test whether state-of-the-art generative models, such as Blender and GPT-3, are good AI teachers, capable of replying to a student in an educational dialogue? Designing an AI teacher test is challenging: although evaluation methods are much-needed, there is no off-the-shelf solution to measuring pedagogical ability. This paper reports…

This Monte Carlo simulation study aimed to investigate confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) estimation methods under different conditions, such as sample size, distribution of indicators, test length, average factor loading, and factor structure. Binary data were generated to compare the performance of maximum likelihood (ML), mean and variance…

Item nonresponses are prevalent in standardized testing. They happen either when students fail to reach the end of a test due to a time limit or quitting, or when students choose to omit some items strategically. Oftentimes, item nonresponses are nonrandom, and hence, the missing data mechanism needs to be properly modeled. In this paper, we…

Based on the framework of testlet models, the current study suggests the Bayesian random block item response theory (BRB IRT) model to fit forced-choice formats where an item block is composed of three or more items. To account for local dependence among items within a block, the BRB IRT model incorporated a random block effect into the response…

Despite broad applications of growth curve models, few studies have dealt with a practical issue -- nonnormality of data. Previous studies have used Student's "t" distributions to remedy the nonnormal problems. In this study, robust distributional growth curve models are proposed from a semiparametric Bayesian perspective, in which…

Coherent mental models for successful comprehension require inferences that establish semantic "bridges" between discourse constituents and "elaborations" that incorporate relevant background knowledge. While it is established that individual differences in the extent to which postsecondary students engage in these processes…

During modern general election cycles, information to forecast the electoral outcome is plentiful. So-called fundamentals like economic growth provide information early in the cycle. Trial-heat polls become informative closer to Election Day. Our model builds on (Linzer, 2013) and is implemented in Stan (Team, 2020). We improve on the estimation…

Currently available (classical) testing procedures for the network autocorrelation can only be used for falsifying a precise null hypothesis of no network effect. Classical methods can be neither used for quantifying evidence for the null nor for testing multiple hypotheses simultaneously. This article presents flexible Bayes factor testing…

A recent paper uses Bayes factors to argue a large minority of rigorous, large-scale education RCTs are "uninformative." The definition of "uninformative" depends on the authors' hypothesis choices for calculating Bayes factors. These arguably overadjust for effect size inflation and involve a fixed prior distribution,…

When item scores are ordered categorical, categorical omega can be computed based on the parameter estimates from a factor analysis model using frequentist estimators such as diagonally weighted least squares. When the sample size is relatively small and thresholds are different across items, using diagonally weighted least squares can yield a…

Large-scale surveys such as the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), the Teaching and Learning International Survey (TALIS), and the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competences (PIAAC) use advanced statistical models to estimate scores of latent traits from multiple observed responses. The comparison of such…

Weighted least squares (WLS), weighted least squares mean-and-variance-adjusted (WLSMV), unweighted least squares mean-and-variance-adjusted (ULSMV), maximum likelihood (ML), robust maximum likelihood (MLR) and Bayesian estimation methods were compared in mixed item response type data via Monte Carlo simulation. The percentage of polytomous items,…

Severity and centrality are two main kinds of rater effects posing threats to the validity and fairness of performance assessments. Adopting Jin and Wang's (2018) extended facets modeling approach, we separately estimated the magnitude of rater severity and centrality effects in the web-based TestDaF (Test of German as a Foreign Language) writing…

Research on human causal induction has shown that people have general prior assumptions about causal strength and about how causes interact with the background. We propose that these prior assumptions about the parameters of causal systems do not only manifest themselves in estimations of causal strength or the selection of causes but also when…

In the coming years, public programs will capture even more and richer data than they do now, including data from web-based tools used by participants in employment services, from tablet-based educational curricula, and from electronic health records for Medicaid beneficiaries. Program evaluators seeking to take full advantage of these data…