Revision-of-opinion literature has generally found subjective probability judgments to be conservative (underconfident), whereas calibration literature has generally found judgment to be overconfident. Reanalysis of three previous studies shows how such data can coexist and reveals the effects of methodology on judgment interpretations. (SLD)

Discussion of probabilistic information retrieval systems highlights the probability ranking principle and discusses when the standard retrieval policy is optimal. Topics discussed include calibration and refinement; independent assessment of relevance by the inquirer; certainty about the computed probabilities of relevance; and confidence and…

This paper proposes a generalization of Thurstonian probabilistic choice models for analyzing both multiple preference responses and their relationships. The approach is illustrated by modeling data from two multivariate preference experiments. Preliminary data analyses show that the extension can yield an adequate representation of multivariate…

Discusses search engines used on the World Wide Web and explains Web-searching principles. Topics include statistics and probability, relevance, weighted terms, precision and recall, monitoring and filtering software, push technology, Boolean operators, metasearch engines, and special features of six main search engines. (LRW)

Proposes a probability heuristic model for syllogistic reasoning and confirms the rationality of this heuristic by an analysis of the probabilistic validity of syllogistic reasoning that treats logical inference as a limiting case of probabilistic inference. Meta-analysis and two experiments involving 40 adult participants and using generalized…

Describes a personal problem solving-inquiry journey, working on a problem suggested by an activity on probability observed in a junior primary classroom. Presents reflective thoughts about the mathematical and pedagogical lessons to be learned from this journey. (ASK)

Describes a bottom-up procedure for discovering multivalued dependencies in observed data without knowing a priori the relationships among the attributes. The proposed algorithm is an application of technique designed for learning conditional independencies in probabilistic reasoning; a prototype system for automated database schema design has…

Explores changes in students' probabilistic thinking and writing during an instructional program that emphasized transactional writing in a problem-solving context. Finds no significant correlations between probabilistic thinking and writing levels--students made gains in both probability reasoning and writing. Reveals their writing incorporated…

Presents an analysis of the different meanings associated with randomness throughout its historical evolution as well as a summary of research concerning the subjective perception of randomness by children and adolescents. Some teaching suggestions are included to help students gradually understand the characteristics of random phenomena. Contains…

Compares the odds ratio with the probability ratio (relative risk). These quantities arise, for example, in the analysis of educational and social science through logistic regression. (Author/SLD)

Introduces a study on primary school children's reasoning about the concepts of probability and choice. Concludes that relatively few children are sufficiently advanced in their thinking about chance situations to be able to see that different chance situations can have the same probabilistic nature. (ASK)

Examines possible differences in secondary students' conceptions of randomness before and after instruction in probability, which occurs for Spanish students between the ages of 14 and 17. Indicates that students' subjective understanding of randomness is close to some interpretations of randomness throughout history. Contains 16 references.…

Using data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's 1994 Diet and Health Knowledge Survey, estimates the odds that an adult individual smokes. Calculates odds of smoking by year of schooling, gender, and age. Odds of smoking are reduced by at least half after the first 10 years of schooling. (Contains 16 references.) (MLH)

Presents discovery mathematics activities involving sporting equipment. (ASK)

This brief investigation exemplifies such considerations by relating concepts from number theory, set theory, probability, logic, and calculus. Satisfying the call for students to acquire skills in estimation, the following technique allows one to "immediately estimate" whether or not a number is prime. (MM)