Classical test theory findings can be derived from the concepts of conditional expectation, conditional independence, and related notions. It is shown that these concepts provide precisely the formalism needed to obtain the classical results with minimal assumptions and with greatest economy in the methods of proof. (RC)

A replication study was conducted to retest the validity of the Neuropsychiatric Hospital Suicide Potential Scale. Fifty four patients who had committed suicide and fifty who had not were the population studied to test, if possible, the limits of prediction the scale can attain by judging the behavior of these patients. (DEP)

After summarizing the Rasmussion Report, the author reviews the probabilistic portion of the report from the perspectives of engineering utility and risk assessment uncertainty. The author shows that the report may represent a significant step forward in the assurance of reactor safety and an imperfect measure of actual reactor risk. (BT)

After a brief review of organization classification, multivariate approaches toward the empirical identification of such classifications are discussed. Ten guidelines for conducting future multivariate classificatory studies are presented, supported by a critique of two published large-scale empirical studies. (Author)

This paper compares the use of multiple pools versus a single pool with respect to test security against large-scale item sharing among some examinees in a computer-based test, under the assumption that a randomized item selection method is used. It characterizes the conditions under which employing multiple pools is better than using a single…

Latent-class item response models with small numbers of latent classes are quite competitive in terms of model fit to corresponding item-response models, at least for one- and two-parameter logistic (1PL and 2PL) models. Provided that care is taken in terms of computational procedures and in terms of use of only limited numbers of latent classes,…

From a decision theoretic viewpoint, a general coefficient (delta) for tests is derived. The coefficient is applied to three kinds of decision situations. The first situation involves a true score estimated by a function of the observed score of a subject on a test (point estimation). Using the squared error loss function and Kelley's formula for…

During the last decade the use of Bayesian statistical method has become quite prevalent in the educational community. Yet, like most statistical techniques, little has been written concerning the application of these methods to the classroom setting. The purpose of this paper is to help correct such a deficiency in the literature by developing a…

Biases in judgment reveal some heuristics of thinking about uncertainty. Three heuristics are discussed. (Author/RH)

Given reflection symmetry, the moment generating function symmetry is necessary and sufficient for the random walk model to be equivalent to a sequential probability ratio test. For a related article, see TM 501 715. (Author/RC)

This investigation examined the effects of a variety of cue criterion function forms and attempted to evaluate the contribution of the factors just named, i.e., the response consistency of subjects, detection of task linearity, and the detection of task nonlinearity, to observed differences in learning. (Author/RK)

Reported are the results of a study which investigated the influence of certain variables within the method of individually guided discovery in mathematics. The independent variables considered were the concepts of ordered partitions and permutations, the level of consolidation or practice after discovery, and the teachers. Also considered were…

Sensitivity data is defined as involving two response categories, with responses observed at different levels of some variable. The responses are taken to indicate sensitivity to the variable and may be labeled "positive" or "negative." The countback method offers confidence limits for the 50% point, the level of the variable…