Describes how bookmakers calculate the betting odds on each of the horses in a race. Explains how the theory of probability is related to oddsmaking. (Author/WRM)

Consists of a collection of observations about the teaching of the first course in elementary probability and statistics offered by many colleges and universities. Highlights the Goldberg Method for solving problems in probability and statistics. (Author/ASK)

Discusses the use of Microsoft Excel software and provides examples of its use in an online statistics course at Golden Gate University in the areas of randomness and probability, sampling distributions, confidence intervals, and regression analysis. (LRW)

Shares experiences of teaching probability from a constructivist perspective. Discusses the role of cognitive conflict, teaching the unit, and evaluation processes. (ASK)

Presents a probability activity addressing students' misconceptions regarding the Law of Large Numbers. Provides students with better conceptual understanding of the Law of Large Numbers. (ASK)

Many evaluation students are still being taught the use of tests of statistical significance without being warned about their limitations. This paper discusses other estimates of treatment effects necessary to interpret between-group differences correctly. Sources to improve evaluation practice are also suggested. (SLD)

A Rasch method is proposed to measure variables of nonadditive conjoint structures, where dichotomous response conditions are evaluated. In this framework, both the number of endorsed items and their latent positions are considered. The four steps of the method are explained and illustrated with simulated person responses. (SLD)

Honors the contribution of Efraim Fischbein to the study and analysis of probabilistic thinking. Summarizes Fischbein's early work, then focuses on the role of intuition in mathematical and scientific thinking; the development of probabilistic thinking; and the influence of instruction on that development. (Author/MM)

Provides background information on genetics and presents a mathematics activity that uses genetics to study probability. (ASK)

Describes an activity that springs from the classic fable, The Tortoise and the Hare. Presents a game in which students simulate the race and use a die to move the animals in position. (CCM)

Anti-evolutionists are fond of presenting their audiences with numbers of dizzying magnitude that they use to represent incredibly low probabilities for such events as the chance formation of a protein molecule or the origin of life by invoking beloved mathematical law by Borel. Presents an illustration to reveal what Borel really meant. (ASK)

Some of the most impressive-sounding criticisms of the conventional theory of biological evolution involve probability. Presents a few examples of how probability should and should not be used in discussing evolution. (ASK)

Women (n=265) and men (n=103) aged 17-61 predicted the probability that a career-related dream from adolescence would come true. More women's than men's dreams included family (but only 15%). Older adults believed their dreams were less likely to come true but reported less disappointment about it. More education correlated with less…

We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction--learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect--based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship…

nstraints, phonotactic probabilityThe effects of phonotactic constraints (i.e., the status of a sound as correctly or incorrectly articulated) and phonotactic probability (i.e., the likelihood of a sound sequence) on lexical acquisition have been investigated independently. This study investigated the interactive influence of phonotactic…