Testing procedures which involve testees assigning probabilities of correctness to all multiple choice alternatives is examined. Two basic assumptions in these procedures are reviewed. Empirical examinee response data are examined and it is suggested that these assumptions should not be taken lightly in empirical studies of personal probability…

Within the beta-binomial Bayesian framework, procedures are described for the evaluation of the kappa index of reliability on the basis of one administration of a domain-referenced test. Major factors affecting this index include cutoff score, test score variability and test length. Empirical data which substantiate some theoretical trends deduced…

A number of different reliability coefficients have recently been proposed for tests used to differentiate between groups such as masters and nonmasters. One promising index is the proportion of students in a class that are consistently assigned to the same mastery group across two testings. The present paper proposes a single test administration…

Presents an activity related to probability in order to answer a question based on the English football league. The question is "What is the probability that the FA Cup Final will be between the same two teams that played in the previous tournament?". (ASK)

Presents a mathematical definition of the probability-weighted amount of information (PWI), a measure of term specificity in documents that is based on an information-theoretic view of retrieval events. Corresponds with the term frequency-inverse document frequency (tf-idf) measures that are used in information retrieval systems. (Author/LRW)

Neural network models and more conventional statistics were used to study the use of sequential phonological probabilities in the segmentation of a phonological transcription of conversational English that might allow the infant to bootstrap into a series of increasingly sophisticated segmentation competencies. Results are interpreted in the…

Discusses the use of hyperlinks for improving information retrieval on the World Wide Web and proposes a general model for using hyperlinks based on Probabilistic Argumentation Systems. Topics include propositional logic, knowledge, and uncertainty; assumptions; using hyperlinks to modify document score and rank; and estimating the popularity of a…

Presents an activity in which students investigate geometric probability at a school fair. (YDS)

Uses game theory to help practitioners make decisions about educational games, simulations, or workshops whose outcomes depend to some extent on chance. Highlights include principles for making decisions involving risk; elementary laws of probability; utility theory; and principles for making decisions involving uncertainty. (eight references)…

Probabilistic risk assessment has been promoted within the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as a means of judging risk to the public and of determining regulatory measures. Interviews with engineers and other technically trained personnel reveal the difficulties created by expectations that this form of assessment should be applied. (TJH)

Discusses Kris N. Kirby's work on signal detection theory and its application to Watson's selection task. Identifies problems with the design and interpretation of Kirby's card-selection experiments. (DR)

Discusses Over and Evans' alternative interpretations to Kris N. Kirby's card-selection tasks and finds empirical difficulties. Cites the potentially important contribution of Over and Evans to understanding of the card-selection task by applying the notion of epistemic utility. (DR)

This commentary praises the clustering technique of data gathering from clients described by Carney (1992). It also cautions that analyzing qualitative data by quantitative means must be done with care, so that a matrix analysis and resulting interpretation of data gathered through the clustering technique, as Carney suggests, is valid and…

The isotonic ordinal probabilistic model (ISOP) is introduced as a common nonparametric theoretical structure for unidimensional models for quantitative, ordinal, and dichotomous variables. Fundamental theorems on dichotomous and polytomous weakly independent ordered systems are derived, and testing at the observed empirical level is discussed.…

Assesses the retrieval effectiveness of automatically constructed interdocument hypertext links in information retrieval (IR). Describes experiments using statistical and probabilistic techniques that were designed to obtain evidence concerning the usefulness of querying and browsing automatically constructed IR hypertexts. Results indicate a…