A computer simulation was undertaken to determine the effects of using Huynh's single-administration estimates of the decision consistency indices for agreement and coefficient kappa, under conditions that violated the beta-binomial assumption. Included in the investigation were two unimodal score distributions that fit the model and two bimodal…

The Government Accounting Office (GAO) reviewed 71 actuarial, behavioral, and economic models that are used for retirement forecasting, focusing on models of federal retirement program costs, civilian retirement decisions, and retirement income. GAO wished to determine to what extent the models have been documented, to what extent the models are…

This report describes a statistically designed experiment that was carried out in an operational setting to determine the contributions of different sources of variation to the unreliability of scoring. The experiment made novel use of partially balanced incomplete block designs that facilitated the unbiased estimation of certain main effects…

The dynamic linear model or Kalman filtering model provides a useful methodology for predicting the past, present, and future states of a dynamic system, such as an object in motion or an economic or social indicator that is changing systematically with time. Recursive likelihood methods for adaptive Kalman filtering and smoothing are developed.…

A general model is described which can be used to represent the four common types of meta-analysis: (1) estimation of effect size by combining study outcomes; (2) estimation of effect size by contrasting study outcomes; (3) estimation of statistical significance by combining study outcomes; and (4) estimation of statistical significance by…

These three papers consider various models and mechanisms for the achievement of industrial standardization. The first, "Duopoly Compatibility Standards with Partial Cooperation and Standards Leadership" (Sanford V. Berg, University of Florida) presents a model of duopolists producing differentiated substitutes, and considers the…

The Fishbein and Ajzen model of attitude-behavior consistency was applied to 56 undergraduates learning to use a microcomputer. Two levels of context for this act were compared: the students' beliefs about themselves, and their beliefs about people in general. The results indicated that students' beliefs were good predictors of their behavioral…

Some of the conceptual qualitative ideas needed to test nonlinear models empirically and to modify them are described. Relationships among these ideas and computer applications are also examined to elucidate the general process of nonlinear modeling. Two examples are presented along with a discussion of bifurcation, catastrophe, and maximum…

The accuracy of trait estimates obtained from three vertical equating methods was examined. The procedures studied included two anchor test designs and a single-group design. Data from two content areas and two grade combinations were studied. A three-parameter logistic model was used to perform the equatings. The results obtained were used to…

In this report, selection theory is used as a theoretical framework from which mathematical algorithms for tailored testing are derived. The process of tailored, or adaptive, testing is presented as analogous to personnel selection and rejection on a series of continuous variables that are related to ability. Proceeding from a single common-factor…

Although two-stage testing is not the most efficient form of adaptive testing, it has some advantages. In this paper, linear programming models are given for the construction of two-stage tests. In these models, practical constraints with respect to, among other things, test composition, administration time, and inter-item dependencies play an…

A short review of the different estimation procedures that have been used in association with the Rasch model is provided. These procedures include joint, conditional, and marginal maximum likelihood methods; Bayesian methods; minimum chi-square methods; and paired comparison estimation. A comparison of the marginal maximum likelihood estimation…

A classical problem in mastery testing is the choice of passing score and test length so that the mastery decisions are optimal. This problem has been addressed several times from a variety of viewpoints. In this paper, the usual indifference zone approach is adopted, with a new criterion for optimizing the passing score. Specifically,…

Occasionally, situations arise where mixtures of two binomials with one known success parameter are met. An example in educational testing is the mastery or random guessing model in which an examinee is supposed either to master the items or not to master them and to guess blindly. This paper gives moment estimators for such mixtures and presents…

A "maximin" model for item response theory based test design is proposed. In this model only the relative shape of the target test information function is specified. It serves as a constraint subject to which a linear programming algorithm maximizes the information in the test. In the practice of test construction there may be several…