Examination of the literature on statistics indicates that the rejection of the hypothesis of chance dates from the turn of the century. Early statements about statistical significance were given in terms of the "probable error." These earlier conventions were adopted and restated by Fisher in his "Statistical Methods for Research…

To facilitate statistical decisions about sets of results encompassing more than a single isolated test, a joint probability multiple comparisons significance test for path analysis, multiple regression, and a correlation matrix is developed. (Author/AEF)

The effect on subject performance due to different levels of feedforward and feedback information were investigated within a multiple cue probability learning setting. (Author/GK)

This paper provides a mathematical algorithm for Fisher's exact probability test which is adaptable to contingency tables greater than two by two, and which provides the user with an index of predictive association designed for crosstabulations of nominal level variables. (Author/JKS)

Employee training must accompany technology adoption. Develops a model of the firm incorporating employee training and the uncertain reliability of the effect on labor productivity. An augmenter captures training effect; a two-state probability function captures uncertainty. Estimates for training cost ratio range from 4-10 percent, so…

The multitude of procedures for testing hypotheses about mean contrasts often presented in statistical methods textbooks is unwarranted. This article demonstrates that nearly all such research can be handled by a single contrast test statistic often attributed to R. A. Fisher. (TJH)

Using a new method of data analysis (statistical implication) and a method of postcorrelative treatment reveals students' preconceptions in conditional probability stemming from concrete references and makes explicit the procedures of problem solving that reflect these conceptions. (24 references) (Author/MKR)

Outlines a theory of naive probability in which individuals who are unfamiliar with the probability calculus can infer the probabilities of events in an "extensional" way. The theory accommodates reasoning based on numerical premises, and explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem.…

Formulates optimal sequential rules for mastery testing using an approach derived from Bayesian sequential decision theory to consider both threshold and linear loss structures. Adopts the binomial probability distribution as the psychometric model. Provides an empirical example for concept-learning in medicine. (SLD)

A recently proposed stochastic model to describe the citation process in the presence of obsolescence is used to answer the question: If a paper has not been cited by a certain time after its publication, what is the probability that it will ever be cited? A proof of the theorem is appended. (Author/LRW)

Presents a fully Bayesian analysis for the Probability Matrix Decomposition (PMD) model using the Gibbs sampler. Identifies the advantages of this approach and illustrates the approach by applying the PMD model to opinions of respondents from different countries concerning the possibility of contracting AIDS in a specific situation. (SLD)

Studied sample sizes for confidence intervals on the increase in the squared multiple correlation coefficient using simulation. Discusses predictors and actual coverage probability and provides sample-size guidelines for probability coverage to be near the nominal confidence interval. (SLD)

In this paper we measure the effect of Catholic high school attendance on educational attainment and test scores. Because we do not have a good instrumental variable for Catholic school attendance, we develop new estimation methods based on the idea that the amount of selection on the observed explanatory variables in a model provides a guide to…

Cross-sectional data, such as Census statistics, enable the re-enactment of household lifecourse through the construction of the household composition matrix, a tabulation of persons in households by their age and by the age of their corresponding household-heads. Household lifecourse is represented in the household composition matrix somewhat…

Normal participants (n=5) having no experience with antipsychotic drugs and medicated participants (n=5) with clinical experience with chronic low doses of haloperidol (3-10mg/day for 2-4 months) in the treatment of neuroses were evaluated for the effects of inter-trial interval (ITI) feedback on a discrete-trials peak-interval timing procedure.…