Null hypothesis testing has long since been the 'go-to analytic approach' in quantitative second language (L2) research (Norris, 2015, p. 97). To many, however, years of reliance on this approach has resulted in a crisis of inference across the social and behavioral sciences (e.g., Rouder et al., 2016). As an alternative to the null hypothesis…

In this article, I explore a Bayesian approach to avalanche decision-making. I motivate this perspective by highlighting a version of the base-rate fallacy and show that a similar pattern applies to decision-making in avalanche-terrain. I then draw out three theoretical lessons from adopting a Bayesian approach and discuss these lessons…

Educators use various statistical techniques to explain relationships between latent and observable variables. One way to model these relationships is to use Bayesian networks as a scoring model. However, adjusting the conditional probability tables (CPT-parameters) to fit a set of observations is still a challenge when using Bayesian networks. A…

Teachers routinely observe and interpret student behavior to make judgements about whether and how to support their students' learning. Simulated cases can help pre-service teachers to gain this skill of diagnostic reasoning. With 118 pre-service teachers, we tested whether participants rate simulated cases presented in a serial-cue case format as…

For surveys of complex issues that entail multiple steps, multiple reference points, and nongradient attributes (e.g., social inequality), this study proposes a new multiprocess model that integrates ideal-point and dominance approaches into a treelike structure (IDtree). In the IDtree, an ideal-point approach describes an individual's attitude…

The author of this article describes a game-theory-based economics class on how people should, and do, form beliefs, communicate, and make decisions under uncertainty. Topics include Bayesian and non-Bayesian belief updating, the value of information, communication games, advertising, political media, and social learning. The only prerequisite is…

Confidence assessment (CA) involves students stating alongside each of their answers a confidence rating (e.g. 0 low to 10 high) to express how certain they are that their answer is correct. Each student's score is calculated as the sum of the confidence ratings on the items that they answered correctly, minus the sum of the confidence ratings on…

Despite accumulated evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of flipped language classrooms in higher education, there is no quantitative examination of the extant empirical studies to draw a general conclusion. Based on Bayesian methodologies and 26 effect sizes, this study quantitatively examines empirical studies that investigated flipped…

The evaluation of learning in mathematics is a worldwide problem, therefore, new methods are required to assess the understanding of mathematical concepts. In this paper, we propose to use the Item Response Theory to analyze the understanding level of undergraduate students about the real function mathematical concept. The Bayesian approach was…

The present study compares the fit of two- and three-parameter logistic (2PL and 3PL) models of item response theory in the performance of preschool children on the Raven's Colored Progressive Matrices. The test of Raven is widely used for evaluating nonverbal intelligence of factor g. Studies comparing models with real data are scarce on the…

Bayesian and classical statistical approaches are based on different types of logical principles. In order to avoid mistaken inferences and misguided interpretations, the practitioner must respect the inference rules embedded into each statistical method. Ignoring these principles leads to the paradoxical conclusions that the hypothesis…

I study the impact of novel game manipulations on user engagement using principled computational methods. Maximizing user engagement is important because it results in more profitable games in the commercial arena and better learning outcomes in the educational arena. It is then perhaps unsurprising that the study of user engagement is well…

When researchers code behavior that is undetectable or falls outside of the validated ordinal scale, the resultant outcomes often suffer from informative missingness. Incorrect analysis of such data can lead to biased arguments around efficacy and effectiveness in the context of experimental and intervention research. Here, we detail a new…

In educational assessments and achievement tests, test developers and administrators commonly assume that test-takers attempt all test items with full effort and leave no blank responses with unplanned missing values. However, aberrant response behavior--such as performance decline, dropping out beyond a certain point, and skipping certain items…

This study investigated dimensionality of Binary Response Items through a non-parametric technique of Item Response Theory measurement framework. The study used causal comparative research type of nonexperimental design. The sample consisted of 5,076 public senior secondary school examinees (SSS3) between the age of 14-16 years from 45 schools,…