Previous research has revealed that infants can reason correctly about single-event probabilities with small but not large set sizes (Bonatti, 2008; Teglas "et al.", 2007). The current study asks whether infants can make predictions regarding single-event probability with large set sizes using a novel procedure. Infants completed two trials: A…

Unexpected events often distract us. In the laboratory, novel auditory stimuli have been shown to capture attention away from a focal visual task and yield specific electrophysiological responses as well as a behavioral cost to performance. Distraction is thought to follow ineluctably from the sound's low probability of occurrence or, put more…

A principle of efficient language production based on information theoretic considerations is proposed: Uniform Information Density predicts that language production is affected by a preference to distribute information uniformly across the linguistic signal. This prediction is tested against data from syntactic reduction. A single multilevel…

A 3-year nationwide population-based data set was used to explore methods of suicide (violent vs. nonviolent) and possible contributing factors among cancer patients in Taiwan. A total of 1,065 cancer inpatients who committed suicide were included as our study sample. The regression shows that those who had genitourinary cancer were 0.55 times (p…

This study capitalizes on a natural experiment that occurred in California between 2000 and 2002. In those years, the state offered a competitively allocated $20,000 incentive called the Governor's Teaching Fellowship (GTF) aimed at attracting academically talented, novice teachers to low-performing schools and retaining them in those schools for…

Pigeons' discounting of probabilistic and delayed food reinforcers was studied using adjusting-amount procedures. In the probability discounting conditions, pigeons chose between an adjusting number of food pellets contingent on a single key peck and a larger, fixed number of pellets contingent on completion of a variable-ratio schedule. In the…

Four pigeons were trained on two-key concurrent variable-interval schedules with no changeover delay. In Phase 1, relative reinforcers on the two alternatives were varied over five conditions from 0.1 to 0.9. In Phases 2 and 3, we instituted a molar feedback function between relative choice in an interreinforcer interval and the probability of…

"t"-Tests are widely used by researchers to compare the average values of a numeric outcome between two groups. If there are doubts about the suitability of the data for the requirements of a "t"-test, most notably the distribution being non-normal, the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test may be used instead. However, although often…

The conjunction fallacy has been cited as a classic example of the automatic contextualisation of problems. In two experiments we compared the performance of autistic and typically developing adolescents on a set of conjunction fallacy tasks. Participants with autism were less susceptible to the conjunction fallacy. Experiment 2 also demonstrated…

We present a quantum analysis of two-mode single-photon states based on the probability distributions of the optical field strength (or position quadrature) in order to describe their quantum polarization characteristics, where polarization is understood as a significative confinement of the optical field-strength values on determined regions of…

Decision-making is central to human cognition. Fundamental to every decision is the ability to internally represent the available choices and their relative costs and benefits. The most basic and frequent decisions we make occur as our motor system chooses and executes only those actions that achieve our current goals. Although these interactions…

Using sequences of coin flips as a model of serial independent events, we asked schoolchildren in grades 1 through 5 to estimate the likelihood of the next flip. Most children in each grade expected short patterns to continue.

In the context of existing "quantitative"/"qualitative" schisms, this paper briefly reminds readers of the current practice of testing for statistical significance in social science research. This practice is based on a widespread confusion between two conditional probabilities. A worked example and other elements of logical argument demonstrate…

Finding an object in our environment is an important human ability that also represents a critical component of human foraging behavior. One type of information that aids efficient large-scale search is the likelihood of the object being in one location over another. In this study we investigated the conditions under which individuals respond to…

People appear to be unrealistically optimistic about their future prospects, as reflected by theory and research in the fields of psychology, organizational behavior, behavioral economics, and behavioral finance. Many real-world examples (e.g., consumer behavior during economic recessions), however, suggest that people are not always overly…