This paper describes the application of finite-mixture general linear models based on the beta distribution to modeling response styles, polarization, anchoring, and priming effects in probability judgments. These models, in turn, enhance our capacity for explicitly testing models and theories regarding the aforementioned phenomena. The mixture…

Verbal probability expressions are frequently used to communicate risk and uncertainty. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), for example, uses them to convey risks associated with climate change. Given the potential for human action to mitigate future environmental risks, it is important to understand how people respond to these…

When participants respond to auditory and visual stimuli, responses to audiovisual stimuli are substantially faster than to unimodal stimuli (redundant signals effect, RSE). In such tasks, the RSE is usually higher than probability summation predicts, suggestive of specific integration mechanisms underlying the RSE. We investigated the role of…

This article describes a probability project used in an upper division, one-semester probability course with third-semester calculus and linear algebra prerequisites. The student learning outcome focused on developing the skills necessary for approaching project-sized math/stat application problems. These skills include appropriately defining…

Recent studies have revealed a relation between the given response and the response latency for personality questionnaire items in the form of an inverted-U effect, which has been interpreted in light of schema-driven behavior. In general, more probable responses are given faster. In the present study, the relationship between the probability of…

We investigated how people interpret conditionals and how stable their interpretation is over a long series of trials. Participants were shown the colored patterns on each side of a 6-sided die and were asked how sure they were that a conditional holds of the side landing upward when the die is randomly thrown. Participants were presented with 71…

In recent years, the popularity of online social networks (OSN) has risen to unprecedented levels, with the most popular ones having hundreds of millions of users. This success has generated interest within the networking community and has given rise to a number of measurement and characterization studies, which provide a first step towards their…

Organizations work towards achieving their goals by integrating and utilizing the knowledge available within their boundaries. In order to successfully manage the knowledge-related processes occurring in their workgroups, organizations need to understand how different contingency factors affect the knowledge-related processes of a workgroup,…

The long history of outdoor education does little to alleviate the fears of many parents, teachers, principals and superintendents who believe that outdoor education is too risky. These decision makers often lack both the knowledge to make informed decisions and the time and resources to investigate their assumptions. Pair these circumstances with…

Studies using an Information Integration approach have shown that children from four years have a good intuitive understanding of probability and expected value. Experience of skill-related uncertainty may provide one naturalistic opportunity to develop this intuitive understanding. To test the viability of this view, 16 5- and 16 7-year-olds…

We investigate the role of external inscriptions, particularly those of a spatial or visual nature, in the solution of probability word problems. We define a taxonomy of external visual representations used in probability problem solving that includes "pictures," "spatial reorganization of the given information," "outcome listings," "contingency…

A study combining artificial grammar and sentence comprehension methods investigated the learning and online use of probabilistic, nonadjacent combinatorial constraints. Participants learned a small artificial language describing cartoon monsters acting on objects. Self-paced reading of sentences in the artificial language revealed comprehenders'…

We represent the main stages of the process of mathematical modelling as fuzzy sets in the set of the linguistic labels of negligible, low intermediate, high and complete success by students in each of these stages and we use the total possibilistic uncertainty as a measure of students' modelling capacities. A classroom experiment is also…

Largely due to dissatisfaction with the standard null hypothesis significance testing procedure, researchers have begun to consider alternatives. For example, Killeen (2005a) has argued that researchers should calculate p[subscript rep] that is purported to indicate the probability that, if the experiment in question were replicated, the obtained…

The sampling (probability) distribution for the sum of dice is presented graphically as a compelling demonstration of the Central Limit Theorem.