In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

This article reflects on whether probability statements can usefully be made about one-off exceptional events.

In standard treatments of probability, Pr(A[vertical bar]B) is defined as the ratio of Pr(A[intersection]B) to Pr(B), provided that Pr(B) greater than 0. This account of conditional probability suggests a psychological question, namely, whether estimates of Pr(A[vertical bar]B) arise in the mind via implicit calculation of…

Six studies investigated the relationship between production and comprehension by examining how relative clause production mechanisms influence the probabilistic information used by comprehenders to understand these structures. Two production experiments show that accessibility-based mechanisms that are influenced by noun animacy and verb type…

Signal detection theory (SDT) makes the frequently challenged assumption that decision criteria have no variance. An extended model, the Law of Categorical Judgment, relaxes this assumption. The long accepted equation for the law, however, is flawed: It can generate negative probabilities. The correct equation, the Law of Categorical Judgment…

How well we are attuned to the statistics of our environment is a fundamental question in understanding human behaviour. It seems particularly important to be able to provide accurate assessments of the probability with which negative events occur so as to guide rational choice of preventative actions. One question that arises here is whether or…

This study investigated the effects of immigration and home language on academic achievement over time. Using data from Ontario's Assessments of Reading, Writing and Mathematics administered to the same students in Grades 3 and 6, logistic regression was used to predict if students achieved proficiency in Grade 6 if they were not proficient in…

Most research on cognates has focused on words presented in isolation that are easily defined as cognate between L1 and L2. In contrast, this study investigates what counts as cognate in authentic texts and how such cognates are read. Participants with L1 Danish read news articles in their highly proficient L2, English, while their eye-movements…

Studies that compare recidivism rates between parolees and unconditionally released inmates typically attach these statuses upon release, and then follow these groups until they either fail or meet the censor date. However, this method of identifying former inmates as parolees does not comport with how parolees are conceptualized by the agencies…

Background: Many children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) struggle to understand familiar words and learn unfamiliar words. We explored the extent to which these problems reflect deficient use of probabilistic gaze in the extra-linguistic context. Method: Thirty children with ASD and 43 with typical development (TD) participated in a spoken…

This brief describes the impact of the Montgomery County (Maryland) Public Schools (MCPS) 2007-2008 full-day Head Start prekindergarten (pre-K) class model on student academic performance, cognitive skills, and learning behaviors by the end of Grade 2. This is the fourth impact study of the MCPS full-day Head Start pre-K class model. The following…

Academic couples make up a significant portion of the academic labor market. Unlike other dual-career households, academic couples must not only find employment in the same region, but often in the same institution. Previous work has not considered how outcomes may be different when dual career households work for the same employer. In the first…

Experts have a remarkable capability of locating, perceptually organizing, identifying, and categorizing objects in images specific to their domains of expertise. Eliciting and representing their visual strategies and some aspects of domain knowledge will benefit a wide range of studies and applications. For example, image understanding may be…

This study focused on characteristics of the family environment that may mediate the relationship between disaster exposure and the presence of symptoms that met DSM-IV diagnostic criteria for symptom count and duration for an internalizing disorder in children and youth. We also explored how parental history of mental health problems may moderate…

This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning…