A simulation of Cincinnati mass media system predicts frequency and reach of flow of messages from known facts taken from census statistics, newspaper and radio audience studies, and a content analysis of the press relevant to attitudes and opinions measured by NORC survey of the effects of a public information campaign on the United Nations made…

Benefit-cost analysis consists of establishing ratios of benefits to costs for a set of project variants. The decision rule is to select that project variant where the ratio is a maximum. This paper argues that specification and estimation errors can contribute to findings for large-scale systems of benefit-cost ratios approximating zero. The…

This paper explains the concept of models, their construction, and their use. It is suggested that mathematics is a helpful tool in model construction, and that models in general are indispensable in science. Models identify variables and illustrate causal relationships among the variables. An attempt is made to classify models from the point of…

This book is a reissue of the second edition which appeared in 1940. It has the distinction of being the first vintage mathematical work published in the NCTM series "Classics in Mathematics Education." The text includes a biography of Pythagoras and an account of historical data pertaining to his proposition. The remainder of the book shows 370…

The statistician has n independent estimates of a parameter he knows is positive, but, as is the case in components-of-variance problems, some of the estimates may be negative. If the n estimates are to be combined into a single number, we compare the obvious rule, that of averaging the n values and taking the positive part of the result, with…

Least cost decision rules for transferring documents from primary to secondary storage are developed from a dynamic programing model of an information system. The program is constrained to provide for a minimum acceptable level of user benefits. Knowledge of the physical size of the primary storage area and the fraction of documents returned from…

The conclusions reached by commissions established by the Conference on the Application of Science and Technology to the Development of Asia, convened by UNESCO in 1968, are presented after brief descriptions of the present status of applied science and technology in 19 Asian countries. One commission studied social, economic, and cultural factors…

This volume is the result of a study, initiated by United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), to report on the main trends of social sciences research, not on the results achieved. Part I contains an examination of the present state and perspectives for development of the disciplines of sociology (Lazarsfeld),…

The 30 papers in the area of educational statistics that were presented at the 1972 AERA Conference are reviewed. The papers are categorized into five broad areas of interest: (1) theory of univariate analysis, (2) nonparametric methods, (3) regression-prediction theory, (4) multivariable methods, and (5) factor analysis. A list of the papers…

In multivariate analysis of variance the canonical variates of one effect may be correlated with the canonical variates of another effect. When the two effects are an interaction and a main effect this correlation interferes with the interpretation of the main effect. When the two effects are both main effects the interpretation of the common…

The inadequacies in present measurement models are indicated and a description is given of how tree theory, a theory-generative model, overcomes these inadequacies. Among the weaknesses cited in many measurement models are their untested assumptions of linear order and unidimensionality and their inability to generate non-associational…

The area investigated in the present study is the comparison of the permutation t-test with Student's t-test and the Mann-Whitney U-test. The comparison was made for small samples for three distributions, including a normal distribution, a uniform distribution, and a skewed distribution. The properties of each test compared were the probability of…

Coalitions and vote-trading probabilities exist as ways by which the political process reduces conflict and takes account of intensities of minority preferences. By creating matrices of voters and issues, all possible winning coalition patterns were specified and the probabilities within each case were calculated. A preference vector for each…

One approach to the problem of analyzing classroom interaction by use of a Markoff chain is presented. The two sections of the paper present (1) a discusion of Hoel's test of order of a Markoff chain, and a Likelihood Ratio Criterion (LRC) for a two-dependent Markoff chain is given, and (2) a discussion of possible adjustments of Darwin's LRC with…

Fixed-width confidence intervals for a population regression line over a finite interval of x have recently been derived by Gafarian. The method is extended to provide fixed-width confidence intervals for the difference between two population regression lines, resulting in a simple procedure analogous to the Johnson-Neyman technique. (Author)