In an attempt to bridge the gap between academic understanding and practical business use, the Box-Jenkins technique of time series analysis for forecasting future events is presented with a minimum of mathematical notation. The method is presented in three stages: a discussion of traditional forecasting techniques, focusing on traditional…

This mathematical model of the educational system calculates information on population groups by sex, race, age, and educational level. The model can be used to answer questions about what would happen to the flows of students and teachers through the formal educational system if these flows are changed at various stages. The report discusses the…

The study is concerned with the problem of determining stimulus discrimination thresholds in non-human vertebrates. In constrast to conventional methods of teaching differentiation of various stimuli by fixed reinforcement schedules, stimulus discrimination threshold determination is related to a teaching system that adjusts to continuously…

A production system simulator has been developed which is capable of simulating a wide variety of realistic manufacturing environments. The simulator is used as an aid in teaching the concepts of designing production control systems and as a research vehicle for investigating various aspects of control theory for production systems. The report…

Operations research methods, such as system modeling, computer simulation, mathematical programing, and the application of the theory of stochastic processes, could have validity in the field of planning in the public sector. In this volume the use of these methods in the areas of local government, urban planning, traffic control, transportation…

A basic description of the Rasch model and a brief review of the work previously done on the model is related. Simulated data was used to test goodness of fit to the Rasch model. It was found that data with near perfect fit to the Guttman model provides perfect fit to the Rasch model, though a perfect Guttman scale collapses. Random data also…

To measure industrial development in Taiwan, four variables were used: the index of industrial production, electricity consumed in kilowatt hours per capita, Gross National Product per capita, and the percentage of the active working force engaged in non-agricultural occupations. The primary objective of the study was to design a predicting model…

If information science is to be considered a "science" in the true sense of the word, a set of general concepts and analytical expressions must be developed. Fundamental to this development is a rigorous and quantifiable measure of information. In previous papers a general framework, called a generalized information system, is suggested…

A research project developed a computer program for analyzing time series quasi-experimental data. The program generates a nonstationary, integrated moving average time series model; it is used to estimate a parameter which indexes the instantaneous change in level of the time series due to a predesignated treatment. The entire method is based on…

An attempt to build a mathematical model of a device that could learn geometry is discussed. The report discusses the background and motivation of the study, the coding problem, the derivation of Suppes "Stimulus-Response Theory of Finite Automata" used in the work in learning theory, and a summary of the technical work. (DB)

Omitted items cannot properly be treated as wrong when estimating ability and item parameters. A convenient method for utilizing the information provided by omissions is presented. Some theoretical and considerable empirical justification is adduced for the estimates obtained by both old and new methods. (Author)

This report, a technical appendix to The Performance Contracting Concept in Education (EA 003 602), summarizes the mathematical models that have been developed to analyze contractual relationships and incentives. The report will be of interest primarily to theoreticians and analysts rather than educational administrators. (Author)

The behavior of focus samples central to the multiple-look model of Trabasso and Bower is examined by three methods. First, exact probabilities of success conditional upon a certain brief history of stimulation are determined. Second, possible states of the organism during the experiment are defined and a transition matrix for those states…

Proceeding from a unifying framework, the paper reviews recent developments in lexicographic orders, preferences, utilities, probabilities and decision rules. Several new results are included. (see also: LI 004 160) (Author)

Statistical inference concerning the parameters of k multivariate normal populations is considered. Several models in which the parameters have certain hierarchical relationships are discussed, in particular as related to testing the hypothesis that k psychological tests are parallel forms of the same test. The report contains the following…