The purpose of this study was to present and evaluate Bayesian-type models for estimating probabilities of program completion and for predicting first quarter grade point averages of community college students entering certain allied health fields. Two Bayesian models were tested. Bayesian Model 1--Estimating Probabilities of Program…

This case study illustrates the application of Mega--adding measurable value for all stakeholders including society--as the central and ultimate focus for needs assessment. In this case, two needs assessment studies were conducted within a five-year period (1999-2003) with the State of Ohio's Workforce Development (WD) program. An initial needs…

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose and demonstrate an evidence-based scenario design framework for assessment-based computer games. Design/methodology/approach: The evidence-based scenario design framework is presented and demonstrated by using BELLA, a new assessment-based gaming environment aimed at supporting student learning of…

Analyses for results of a series of studies examining intercorrelations among a set of as many as p+1 variables are presented. Several estimators of a pooled or average correlation vector and its variances are derived for cases in which some studies do not report complete correlation matrices. A test of the homogeneity (consistency) of the…

The issue of test-item selection in support of decision making in adaptive testing is considered. The number of items needed to make a decision is compared for two approaches: selecting items from an item pool that are most informative at the decision point or selecting items that are most informative at the examinee's ability level. The first…

Researchers have been limited in their ability to examine multiple constructs simultaneously due to the constraints imposed by traditional statistical methods. The most notable limitations include the need for a relatively large sample size while restricting the variables to a relatively small number. The application of a newly discovered…

The rule space model permits measurement of cognitive skill acquisition, diagnosis of cognitive errors, and detection of the strengths and weaknesses of knowledge possessed by individuals. Two ways to classify an individual into his or her most plausible latent state of knowledge include: (1) hypothesis testing--Bayes' decision rules for minimum…

The problems associated with misclassifying students when pass-fail decisions are based on test scores are discussed. One protection against misclassification is to set a confidence interval around the cutting score. Those whose scores fall above the interval are passed; those whose scores fall below the interval are failed; and those whose scores…

Bayesian estimation procedures are summarized and numerically illustrated by means of simulation methods. Procedures of data generation for simulation purposes are also delineated and computationally demonstrated. The logistic model basic to the Bayesian estimation procedures is shown to be explicit with respect to the probability distribution…

This paper seeks to extend the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in item response theory (IRT) to include the estimation of equating relationships along with the estimation of test item parameters. A method is proposed that incorporates estimation of the equating relationship in the item calibration phase. Item parameters from…

Implications of case specificity in two computer-based clinical-simulation examination cases were examined by a classical measurement approach and by a Bayesian analysis of test characteristics. Results from 163 medical students indicate that such examinations cannot be used in high-stakes situations without additional research. (SLD)

A validity study with 5,219 students examined the degree to which Graduate Management Admission Test (GMAT) scores and undergraduate grade point average (GPA) could predict first-year average and final GPA in doctoral programs in business. The usefulness of the predictions derived from the empirical Bayes regression models is discussed. (SLD)

As part of a project formulating optimal rules for decision making in computer assisted instructional systems in which the computer is used as a decision support tool, an approach that simultaneously optimizes classification of students into two treatments, each followed by a mastery decision, is presented using the framework of Bayesian decision…

A predictive adaptive testing (PAT) strategy was developed based on statistical predictive analysis, and its feasibility was studied by comparing PAT performance to those of the Flexilevel, Bayesian modal, and expected a posteriori (EAP) strategies in a simulated environment. The proposed adaptive test is based on the idea of using item difficulty…

Two methods of using collateral information from similar institutions to predict college freshman grade average were investigated. One central prediction model, referred to as pooled least squares with adjusted intercepts, assumes that slopes and residual variances are homogeneous across selected colleges. The second model, referred to as Bayesian…