Recent developments in cognitive psychology suggest models for knowledge and learning that often fall outside the realm of standard test theory. This paper concerns probability-based inference in terms of such models. The essential idea is to define a space of "student models"--simplified characterizations of students' knowledge, skill,…

Effects of blind guessing on the success of passing true-false and multiple-choice tests are investigated under a stochastic binomial model. Critical values of guessing are thresholds which signify when the effect of guessing is negligible. By checking a table of critical values assembled in this paper, one can make a decision with 95% confidence…

When using item response theory (IRT) models in educational and psychological measurement, it is standard practice to estimate the operating characteristics of test items from examinees' item responses alone. This is the final report of a project that employed Bayesian and empirical Bayesian methods to exploit additional information that is often…

Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision theory is discussed in the context of the…

Bayesian methods for estimating dose response curves in quantal bioassay are studied. A linearized multi-stage model is assumed for the shape of the curves. A Gibbs sampling approach with data augmentation is employed to compute the Bayes estimates. In addition, estimation of the "relative additional risk" and the "risk specific…

Evaluated with 25 learning disabled (LD) and 25 non LD elementary level children was the Bayesian method to screen children for possible LD, an approach which uses the aggregation of data--objective test scores related to likelihood ratios and a known prior odds ratio. (Author/DB)

Since its release in 1976, LOGIST has been the most widely used computer program for estimating the parameters of the three-parameter logistic item response model developed by A. Birnbaum. An alternative program, BILOG, developed by R. J. Mislevy and R. D. Bock (1983), has recently become available. This paper compares the approaches taken by the…

Three separate papers are included in this report. The first describes a two-stage procedure for choosing from among several instructional programs the one which maximizes the probability of passing the test. The second gives the exact sample sizes required to determine whether a squared multiple correlation coefficient is above or below a known…

A summary of the technical problems encountered in performing Bayesian m group regression is given. Grade-point averages for students entering a vocational-technical program are predicted using ability assessments from the Career Planning Profile (CPP), a development of The American College Testing Program (ACT). The theory derived by Lindley (see…

Bayesian statistical methodology and its possible uses in the behavioral sciences are discussed in relation to the solution of problems in both the use and teaching of fundamental statistical methods, including confidence intervals, significance tests, and sampling. The Bayesian model explains these statistical methods and offers a consistent…

The development of an index reflecting the probability that the observed correspondence between multiple choice test responses of two examinees was due to chance in the absence of copying was previously reported. The present paper reports the implementation of a statistic requiring less restrictive underlying assumptions but more computation time…

False-positive and false-negative decisions are the two possible errors committed with a mastery test; yet the estimation of the likelihood of committing these errors has not been investigated. Two methods of this type of estimation are presented and discussed. (Author/JKS)

Statistical methods are presented for studying "correlates of diversity," defined as characteristics of educational organizations that predict dispersion on the dependent variable. Strategies based on exact distribution theory and asymptotic normal approximation are considered. (TJH)

A Bayesian procedure is developed for the estimation of parameters in the two-parameter logistic item response model. Joint modal estimates of the parameters are obtained and procedures for the specification of prior information are described. (Author/LMO)

This study examined the data selection process preceding multivariate analysis for a data set measuring student motivation and self-regulated learning. Data were 138 responses to a questionnaire on motivation and self-regulated learning, adapted for Finnish students. The first goal was to compare the results gained with "gentle" and…