Expected a posteriori has a number of advantages over maximum likelihood estimation or maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation methods. These include ability estimates (thetas) for all response patterns, less regression towards the mean than MAP ability estimates, and a lower average squared error. R. D. Bock and R. J. Mislevy (1982) state that the…

In a variable-length adaptive test with a stopping rule that relied on the asymptotic standard error of measurement of the examinee's estimated true score, M. S. Stocking (1987) discovered that it was sufficient to know the examinee's true score and the number of items administered to predict with some accuracy whether an examinee's true score was…

Hierarchical Bayes procedures for the two-parameter logistic item response model were compared for estimating item parameters. Simulated data sets were analyzed using two different Bayes estimation procedures, the two-stage hierarchical Bayes estimation (HB2) and the marginal Bayesian with known hyperparameters (MB), and marginal maximum…

A Bayesian approach for finding latent classes in data is discussed. The approach uses finite mixture models to describe the underlying structure in the data and demonstrate that the possibility of using full joint probability models raises interesting new prospects for exploratory data analysis. The concepts and methods discussed are illustrated…

A procedure for the sequential optimization of the calibration of an item bank is given. The procedure is based on an empirical Bayes approach to a reformulation of the Rasch model as a model for paired comparisons between the difficulties of test items in which ties are allowed to occur. First, it is indicated how a paired-comparisons design…

This proposal attempts to follow in Allan Birnbaum's tradition by using Bayesian ideas to show that his mental test model possesses even broader applicability than previously realized. Birnbaum's two significant contributions to the theories of statistics and educational testing are: (1) the proof that the sufficiency and conditionality principles…

There are currently three main approaches to parameter estimation in item response theory (IRT): (1) joint maximum likelihood, exemplified by LOGIST, yielding maximum likelihood estimates; (2) marginal maximum likelihood, exemplified by BILOG, yielding maximum likelihood estimates of item parameters (ability parameters can be estimated…

Item response curves for a set of binary responses are studied from a Bayesian viewpoint of estimating the item parameters. For the two-parameter logistic model with normally distributed ability, restricted bivariate beta priors are used to illustrate the computation of the posterior mode via the EM algorithm. The procedure is illustrated by data…

Decision analysis is a quantitative method that permits the systematic evaluation of the costs or benefits accruing to courses of action that might be taken in a decision problem. It entails identification of the alternative choices involved, the assignment of values (costs/benefits) for possible outcomes, and the expression of the probability of…

A Bayesian statistical procedure separating storage from retrieval was used to study development and release of proactive interference in the Brown-Peterson paradigm. A theory of PI is developed stressing response competition at test time and interference in transfer between short- and long-term memory. (CHK)

Concern about passing those examinees who should pass, and retaining those who need remedial work, is one problem related to criterion-referenced testing. This paper deals with one aspect of that problem. When determining how many items to include on a criterion-referenced test, practitioners must resolve various non-statistical issues before a…

A general framework for making mastery/nonmastery decisions based on multivariate test data is described in this study. Over all, mastery is granted (or denied) if the posterior expected loss associated with such action is smaller than the one incurred by the denial (or grant) of mastery. An explicit form for the cutting contour which separates…

In an invitational address to the Victorian Institute of Educational Research, the author discussed Bayesian theory and its relationship to the design and construction of tailored or adaptive tests. Bayesian thinking involves recognizing the role of prior probabilities and using these probabilities in combination with new data to arrive at future…

If overattribution--the tendency for observers to think actors' attitudes match their behaviors even when behaviors are not freely performed--results from the fundamental attribution error, then observers must believe the coerced behavior is attributionally informative. This assumption was tested by (1) investigating the extent to which attitude…

Latent trait test score theory is discussed primarily in terms of Birnbaum's three-parameter logistic model, and with some reference to the Rasch model. Equations and graphic illustrations are given for item characteristic curves and item information curves. An example is given for a hypothetical 20-item adaptive test, showing cumulative results…