Investigated utility estimate variability for the selection utility of using the Programmer Aptitude Test to select computer programmers. Comparison of Monte Carlo results to other risk assessment approaches (sensitivity analysis, break-even analysis, algebraic derivation of the distribtion) suggests that distribution information provided by Monte…

This paper reports a Monte Carlo study of differences induced by different analysis choices over selected types of aptitude treatment interaction (ATI) data (nine combinations of three sample sizes and three population parameter effect sizes). Generally, ANOVA methods tended to overestimate smaller effect sizes and to underestimate larger effect…

Context-dependent items are traditionally analyzed independently, creating a situation in which the potential local item dependence effects among these items may cause a biased estimation of examinees' abilities. This study investigated the local item dependence effects on testlets in the tryout version of a statewide science assessment by a Rasch…

This paper proposes a new Information-Time index as the basis for item selection in computerized classification testing (CCT) and investigates how this new item selection algorithm can help improve test efficiency for item pools with mixed item types. It also investigates how practical constraints such as item exposure rate control, test…

A major problem in most predictions of school enrollment is the forecaster's failure to express adequately his certainty or uncertainty in his estimates. Describes a method whereby a forecaster can prepare probability distributions of enrollment predictions. The Monte Carlo computer simulation calculates enrollments by the multivariable method,…

Monte Carlo results were used to evaluate procedures for discriminating between groups. A multiple testing version of Hotelling's T-squared and the Bonferroni procedure were most powerful for detecting at least one true difference, depending on conditions examined. A multiple Bonferroni procedure was superior in power for detecting all true…

Factor analysis, image analysis, and principal component analysis are compared with respect to the factor patterns they would produce under various conditions. The general conclusion that is reached is that the three methods produce results that are equivalent. (Author/JKS)

Monte Carlo methods are used to simulate activities in baseball such as a team's "hot streak" and a hitter's "batting slump." Student participation in such simulations is viewed as a useful method of giving pupils a better understanding of the probability concepts involved. (MP)

Hawkin's procedure for testing a sequence of observations for a shift in location could have applicability for assessing change within a single subject. Monte Carlo results suggest that Hawkins' procedure is robust with respect to moderate violations of its underlying assumptions of homogeneity of variance and normality. (Author/GDC)

For some situations the beta-binomial distribution might be used to describe the marginal distribution of test scores for a particular population of examinees. Several different methods of approximating the maximum likelihood estimate were investigated, and it was found that the Newton-Raphson method should be used when it yields admissable…

TAILOR, a computer program which implements an approach to tailored testing, was examined by Monte Carlo methods. The evaluation showed the procedure to be highly reliable and capable of reducing the required number of tests items by about one half. (Author/JKS)

A Monte Carlo simulation was employed to determine the accuracy with which the shrinkage in R squared can be estimated by five different shrinkage formulas. The study dealt with the use of shrinkage formulas for various sample sizes, different R squared values, and different degrees of multicollinearity. (Author/JKS)

Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the power of randomization tests used with single-case designs involving random assignment of treatments to phases. Simulations of two treatments and six phases showed an adequate level of power when effect sizes were large, phase lengths exceeded five, and autocorrelation was not negative. (SLD)

A Monte Carlo approach was used to examine bias in the estimation of indirect effects and their associated standard errors. Results illustrate the adverse effects of nonnormality on the accuracy of significance tests in latent variable models estimated using normal theory maximum likelihood statistics. (SLD)