Distinguishing between good and bad science is not easy. Evaluating whether or not a claim really is supported by good research is like buying a car. There is an optimal solution to the problem, which is to read and digest all of the relevant research, but most people do not have time to execute the optimal solution. What they need is a good shortcut. The shortcut this author has developed is composed of four steps: (1) strip it and flip it; (2) trace it; (3) analyze it; and (4) make the decision about whether to adopt it. In this article, he provides some detail on the first of the four steps: strip it and flip it. To get started, one needs to be very clear on three points: (1) precisely what change is being suggested; (2) precisely what outcome is promised as a consequence of that change; and (3) the probability that the promised outcome will actually happen if one undertakes the change. All other considerations are secondary and should be considered distractions. (Contains 2 footnotes and 19 endnotes.)