The intention to introduce a form of post qualification application (PQA) for entry to UK universities has provoked considerable interest, debate and controversy, not least over its impact on diversifying the intake of undergraduates gaining entry to the allegedly most prestigious universities and courses. We review the arguments and evidence advanced so far in this national debate and then subject its hoped-for impacts to empirical testing with a novel and extensive dataset of successful university applications. The results are discouraging for the supporters of the PQA initiative, although much rests on the validity of using current experience to predict the post-PQA outcomes. This underlying assumption is examined in detail and we conclude it is unlikely to be a major factor behind the "disappointing" empirical results. (Contains 5 tables, 5 figures and 8 notes.)