We conducted descriptive observations of severe problem behavior for 2 individuals with autism to identify precursors to problem behavior. Several comparative probability analyses were conducted in addition to lag-sequential analyses using the descriptive data. Results of the descriptive analyses showed that the probability of the potential precursor was greater given problem behavior compared to the unconditional probability of the potential precursor. Results of the lag-sequential analyses showed a marked increase in the probability of a potential precursor in the 1-s intervals immediately preceding an instance of problem behavior, and that the probability of problem behavior was highest in the 1-s intervals immediately following an instance of the precursor. We then conducted separate functional analyses of problem behavior and the precursor to identify respective operant functions. Results of the functional analyses showed that both problem behavior and the precursor served the same operant functions. These results replicate prior experimental analyses on the relation between problem behavior and precursors and extend prior research by illustrating a quantitative method to identify precursors to more severe problem behavior. (Contains 5 figures.)