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ERIC Number: EJ778734
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2003-Mar
Pages: 46
Abstractor: Author
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0010-0285
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
An Evidential Support Accumulation Model of Subjective Probability
Koehler, Derek J.; White, Chris M.; Grondin, Ray
Cognitive Psychology, v46 n2 p152-197 Mar 2003
A model of cue-based probability judgment is developed within the framework of support theory. Cue diagnosticity is evaluated from experience as represented by error-free frequency counts. When presented with a pattern of cues, the diagnostic implications of each cue are assessed independently and then summed to arrive at an assessment of the support for a hypothesis, with greater weight placed on present than on absent cues. The model can also accommodate adjustment of support in light of the baserate or prior probability of a hypothesis. Support for alternatives packed together in a "residual" hypothesis is discounted; fewer cues are consulted in assessing support for alternatives as support for the focal hypothesis increases. Results of fitting this and several alternative models to data from four new multiple-cue probability learning experiments are reported.
Elsevier. 6277 Sea Harbor Drive, Orlando, FL 32887-4800. Tel: 877-839-7126; Tel: 407-345-4020; Fax: 407-363-1354; e-mail: usjcs@elsevier.com; Web site: http://www.elsevier.com.bibliotheek.ehb.be
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, Ottawa (Ontario).
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A