The role of chance in talent development appears in the gifted education literature and also in lay discussions of high ability. Nevertheless, chance as a factor in talent development is frequently misunderstood. This analysis scrutinizes some common beliefs and scholarly perspectives on the effects of chance in the development of high ability, and reveals some shortcomings of these conceptions. In addition various research initiatives are proposed that can redress the current lack of empirical evidence to support or refute particular notions and theories of chance. These initiatives should include the development of a taxonomy of chance events and of quantitative measures of the impact of chance on talent development processes. Overall, such work should generate more accurate conceptions of this fascinating causal factor.