
ERIC Number: EJ725372
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2005-Sep-22
Pages: 17
Abstractor: Author
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0033-2933
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Available Date: N/A
Representation of Odds in Terms of Frequencies Reduces Probability Discounting
Yi, Richard; Bickel, Warren K.
Psychological Record, v55 n4 p577 2005
In studies of probability discounting, the reduction in the value of an outcome as a result of its degree of uncertainty is calculated. Decision making studies suggest two issues with probability that may play a role in data obtained in probability discounting studies. The first issue involves the reduction of risk aversion via subdivision of risk. The second issue involves the differential results in studies of Bayesian reasoning when quantitative information is presented in terms of frequencies rather than percentages. A paper and pencil probability discounting procedure was conducted with 2 magnitudes. Two experimental conditions, 1 that subdivided risk with repeated probabilistic opportunities and 1 that presented information in terms of frequencies, were compared to a standard probability discounting procedure using percentages. The hyperbolic equation of Rachlin, Raineri, and Cross (1991) was used to determine discounting rate. While subdividing risk did not lead to discounting parameters different from other conditions, presenting information in terms of frequencies significantly reduced discounting relative to the standard probability discounting procedure. There was a reverse magnitude effect, with the large magnitude discounted more than the small magnitude, and the same pattern of results was exhibited in all conditions. These results suggest that individuals are less risk aversive when dealing with frequencies rather than percentages.
Descriptors: Probability, Expectation, Prediction, Risk, Psychological Studies, Evaluation Methods, Decision Making, College Students
The Psychological Record, Kenyon College, Gambier, OH 43022. Web site: http://www.thepsychologicalrecord.org.
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
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