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ERIC Number: EJ697129
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2005
Pages: 27
Abstractor: Author
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0033-2933
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
Experimental Tests of Subjective Bayesian Methods
Li,Yuelin; Krantz, David H.
Psychological Record, v55 n2 p251 Spr 2005
We evaluated Samaniego and Reneau's 1994 novel weight method for eliciting subjective probability estimates. Experiment 1 replicated their experiment (subjects weighed their prior estimate against 10 new observations), with an additional weight judgment against 50 observations. In Experiment 2, subjects gave prior estimates to questions in a domain more familiar to them. In Experiment 3, subjects weighed priors against samples of 10 or 50 on a modified scale. We find substantial individual differences in sensitivity to sample size in this task, and also evidence for implicit learning: Subjects who first judged N = 50 subsequently place lower weights on N = 10. People cannot evaluate the quality of their prior knowledge accurately, nor can they consistently produce calibrated priors and marginal posteriors. These results do not support the use of the weight-judgment method for parameter estimation, but do encourage its continued development and improvement.
The Psychological Record, Kenyon College, Gambier, OH 43022. Web site: http://www.thepsychologicalrecord.org
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A