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ERIC Number: EJ689137
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2004-Jan
Pages: 18
Abstractor: Author
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0278-7393
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
The Dud-Alternative Effect in Likelihood Judgment
Windschitl, Paul D.; Chambers, John R.
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, v30 n1 p198-215 Jan 2004
The judged likelihood of a focal outcome should generally decrease as the list of alternative possibilities increases. For example, the likelihood that a runner will win a race goes down when 2 new entries are added to the field. However, 6 experiments demonstrate that the presence of implausible alternatives (duds) often increases the judged likelihood of a focal outcome. This dud-alternative effect was detected for judgments involving uncertainty about trivia facts and stochastic events. Nonnumeric likelihood measures and betting measures reliably detected the effect, but numeric likelihood measures did not. Time pressure increased the magnitude of the effect. The results were consistent with a contrast-effect account: The inclusion of duds increases the perceived strength of the evidence for the focal outcome, thereby affecting its judged likelihood.
American Psychological Association, 750 First Street, NE, Washington, DC 20002-4242. Tel: 800-374-2721 (Toll Free); Tel: 202-336-5510; TDD/TTY: 202-336-6123; Fax: 202-336-5502; e-mail: journals@apa.org.
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A