MINERVA-DM: A Memory Processes Model for Judgments of Likelihood.

Dougherty, Michael R. P.; Gettys, Charles F.; Ogden, Eve E.

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Peer reviewed

ERIC Number: EJ589143

Record Type: Journal

Publication Date: 1999

Pages: N/A

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ISSN: ISSN-0033-295X

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MINERVA-DM: A Memory Processes Model for Judgments of Likelihood.

Dougherty, Michael R. P.; Gettys, Charles F.; Ogden, Eve E.

Psychological Review, v106 n1 p180-209 Jan 1999

Describes a new theory of likelihood judgments based on D. L. Hintzman's (1984, 1988) MINERVA2 memory model. The model, MINERVA-DM (decision making), accounts for a wide range of likelihood-judgment phenomena. Extends the model to expert-probability judgment and shows how MINERVA-DM can account for both good and poor calibration (overconfidence) as a function of varying degrees of expertise. (Author/GCP)

Descriptors: Cognitive Processes, Decision Making, Heuristics, Mathematical Models, Memory, Prediction

Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research

Education Level: N/A

Audience: N/A

Language: English

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