Naive Probability: A Mental Model Theory of Extensional Reasoning.

Johnson-Laird, P. N.; Legrenzi, Paolo; Girotto, Vittorio; Legrenzi, Maria Sonino; Caverni, Jean-Paul

Notes FAQ Contact Us

Back to results

Peer reviewed

ERIC Number: EJ589139

Record Type: Journal

Publication Date: 1999

Pages: N/A

Abstractor: N/A

ISBN: N/A

ISSN: ISSN-0033-295X

EISSN: N/A

Available Date: N/A

Naive Probability: A Mental Model Theory of Extensional Reasoning.

Johnson-Laird, P. N.; Legrenzi, Paolo; Girotto, Vittorio; Legrenzi, Maria Sonino; Caverni, Jean-Paul

Psychological Review, v106 n1 p62-88 Jan 1999

Outlines a theory of naive probability in which individuals who are unfamiliar with the probability calculus can infer the probabilities of events in an "extensional" way. The theory accommodates reasoning based on numerical premises, and explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem. (Author/GCP)

Descriptors: Beliefs, Critical Thinking, Intuition, Probability, Thinking Skills

Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research

Education Level: N/A

Audience: N/A

Language: English

Sponsor: N/A

Authoring Institution: N/A

Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A

Author Affiliations: N/A