
ERIC Number: EJ518616
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 1996
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ISSN: ISSN-0010-0277
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Are Humans Good Intuitive Statisticians after All? Rethinking Some Conclusions from the Literature on Judgment under Uncertainty.
Cosmides, Leda; Tooby, John
Cognition, v58 n1 p1-73 Jan 1996
Eight experiments examined whether certain human problem-solving mechanisms should be expected to represent probability information in terms of frequency. Findings are consistent with literature indicating that frequentist representations eliminate various cognitive biases, including overconfidence, the conjunction fallacy, and base rate neglect. Findings undermine the common conclusion that inductive reasoning mechanisms do not embody a calculus of probability. (HTH)
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Journal Articles
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
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