How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning without Instruction: Frequency Formats.

Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hoffrage, Ulrich

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Peer reviewed

ERIC Number: EJ517158

Record Type: Journal

Publication Date: 1995

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ISSN: ISSN-0033-295X

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How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning without Instruction: Frequency Formats.

Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hoffrage, Ulrich

Psychological Review, v102 n4 p684-704 Oct 1995

It is shown that Bayesian algorithms are computationally simpler in frequency formats than in the probability formats used in previous research. Analysis of several thousand solutions to Bayesian problems showed that when information was presented in frequency formats, statistically naive participants derived up to 50% of inferences by Bayesian algorithms. (SLD)

Descriptors: Algorithms, Bayesian Statistics, Computation, Estimation (Mathematics), Inferences, Probability, Statistical Analysis, Thinking Skills

Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative; Journal Articles

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Language: English

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