Probabilistic Mental Models: A Brunswikian Theory of Confidence.

Gigerenzer, Gerd; And Others

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Peer reviewed

ERIC Number: EJ495681

Record Type: Journal

Publication Date: 1991

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ISSN: ISSN-0033-295X

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Probabilistic Mental Models: A Brunswikian Theory of Confidence.

Gigerenzer, Gerd; And Others

Psychological Review, v98 n4 p506-28 Oct 1991

A theoretical model is proposed for confidence in knowledge based on the assumption that people are good judges of the reliability of their knowledge, provided that the knowledge is representatively sampled from a specified reference class as defined by E. Brunswik (1943). Experiments with 177 college students support the theory. (SLD)

Descriptors: Cognitive Processes, Cognitive Psychology, College Students, Evaluators, Higher Education, Knowledge Level, Prediction, Probability, Reference Groups, Theories

Publication Type: Reports - Evaluative; Journal Articles

Education Level: N/A

Audience: N/A

Language: English

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