ERIC Number: EJ1474484
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2021
Pages: 21
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: EISSN-1936-4660
Available Date: 0000-00-00
Confidence Intervals of COVID-19 Vaccine Efficacy Rates
Frank Wang
Numeracy, v14 n2 Article 7 2021
This tutorial uses publicly available data from drug makers and the Food and Drug Administration to guide learners to estimate the confidence intervals of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy rates with a Bayesian framework. Under the classical approach, there is no probability associated with a parameter, and the meaning of confidence intervals can be misconstrued by inexperienced students. With Bayesian statistics, one can find the posterior probability distribution of an unknown parameter, and state the probability of vaccine efficacy rate, which makes the communication of uncertainty more flexible. We use a hypothetical example and a real baseball example to guide readers to learn the beta-binomial model before analyzing the clinical trial data. This note is designed to be accessible for lower-level college students with elementary statistics and elementary algebra skills.
Descriptors: COVID-19, Pandemics, Immunization Programs, Program Effectiveness, Computation, Statistical Analysis, Probability, Bayesian Statistics
National Numeracy Network. 906 West 2nd Avenue, Suite 100, Spokane, WA 99201. Tel: 507-222-5239; Web site: https://digitalcommons.usf.edu/numeracy/
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Descriptive
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: National Science Foundation (NSF)
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: 1121844; 1644975
Author Affiliations: N/A

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