ERIC Number: EJ1301859
Record Type: Journal
Publication Date: 2021
Pages: 9
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: ISSN-0888-4080
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Available Date: N/A
Individual Differences in the Susceptibility to Forecasting Biases
De Baets, Shari; Vanderheyden, Karlien
Applied Cognitive Psychology, v35 n4 p1106-1114 Jul-Aug 2021
We set out to investigate whether interindividual differences in cognition affect the susceptibility to four forecasting biases: (a) optimism bias, (b) adding noise to forecasts, (c) presuming positive autocorrelation when series are independent, and (d) trend damping. All four biases were prevalent in the results, but we found no consistent relationships with cognition (cognitive style, cognitive reflection). Our sample included both novice and expert forecasters. They did not differ significantly in their susceptibility to biases. The lack of individual differences in bias susceptibility suggests that universal approaches to debiasing are possible.
Descriptors: Prediction, Individual Differences, Cognitive Style, Reflection, Novices, Specialists, Positive Attitudes, Bias, Correlation, Incidence, Schemata (Cognition)
Wiley. Available from: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030. Tel: 800-835-6770; e-mail: cs-journals@wiley.com; Web site: https://www-wiley-com.bibliotheek.ehb.be/en-us
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Research
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: N/A
Authoring Institution: N/A
Grant or Contract Numbers: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A