This article investigates the contours of inequality in the context of institutional decline and polarization in educational attainment. Using household survey data collected in 2005-2006 by UNICEF, we conduct synthetic cohort analyses estimating the likelihood of transitioning to secondary and higher education for men and women; urban and rural residents; poor and wealthy; and ethnic majority and minority citizens. Overall, gender and ethnic differences appear to contribute most to the polarization, although poverty and rural residence play a role in some contexts.