Measures of participants' water cycle knowledge and ability to recognize emergence were taken at various points throughout a 2-h experience with the Cloverdale virtual watershed socioecological simulation. Multilevel growth models were estimated for analysis of hypothesized predictive relationships between measured variables. Significant growth was found for ability to recognize emergence in participants that completed the Cloverdale virtual scenario. Preliminary water cycle knowledge was found to predict initial ability to recognize emergence. Application of results to unobtrusive assessment of learning in virtual worlds is discussed.