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ERIC Number: ED635571
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2020
Pages: 18
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
Information, Incentives, and Goals in Election Forecasts
Gelman, Andrew; Hullman, Jessica; Wlezien, Christopher; Morris, George Elliott
Grantee Submission, Judgment and Decision Making v15 n5 p863-880 2020
Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these "knowns" about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and communication. We highlight how incentives may shape forecasts, and particularly forecast uncertainty, in light of calibration challenges. We illustrate these challenges in creating, communicating, and evaluating election predictions, using the Economist and Fivethirtyeight forecasts of the 2020 election as examples, and offer recommendations for forecasters and scholars.
Publication Type: Journal Articles; Reports - Evaluative
Education Level: N/A
Audience: Researchers; Students
Language: English
Sponsor: National Science Foundation (NSF); Institute of Education Sciences (ED); Office of Naval Research (ONR) (DOD); National Institutes of Health (NIH) (DHHS)
Authoring Institution: N/A
IES Funded: Yes
Grant or Contract Numbers: R305D190048
Data File: URL: N/A
Author Affiliations: N/A