This report provides an analysis of future impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australia's higher education sector. The main driver of these impacts is the closure of Australia's international border, preventing the movement of international students into Australia. This has had a significant impact on total enrolments across the sector, and subsequent reduction in revenue for higher education institutions. The analysis confirms the understanding of the role that the pandemic has played in accelerating many of the trends and changes that were already occurring in Australia's higher education system, in particular the shift to blended and online delivery of programs. These trends and other issues discussed in the report, including impacts on the short to mid-term ongoing financial viability of providers, highlight emerging and additional risks to the quality of higher education and the integrity of the sector. This report presents a number of core insights to support consideration of what the impact of COVID-19 will be, and discusses how this might alter Australian higher education from a sector perspective. [This report was produced with Wells Advisory.]