ERIC Number: ED593197
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2018-Jul
Pages: 7
Abstractor: As Provided
ISBN: N/A
ISSN: N/A
EISSN: N/A
Available Date: N/A
Using Big Data to Sharpen Design-Based Inference in A/B Tests
Sales, Adam C.; Botelho, Anthony; Patikorn, Thanaporn; Heffernan, Neil T.
International Educational Data Mining Society, Paper presented at the International Conference on Educational Data Mining (EDM) (11th, Raleigh, NC, Jul 16-20, 2018)
Randomized A/B tests in educational software are not run in a vacuum: often, reams of historical data are available alongside the data from a randomized trial. This paper proposes a method to use this historical data--often highdimensional and longitudinal--to improve causal estimates from A/B tests. The method proceeds in two steps: first, fit a machine learning model to the historical data predicting students' outcomes as a function of their covariates. Then, use that model to predict the outcomes of the randomized students in the A/B test. Finally, use design-based methods to estimate the treatment effect in the A/B test, using prediction errors in place of outcomes. This method retains all of the advantages of design-based inference, while, under certain conditions, yielding more precise estimators. This paper will give a theoretical condition under which the method improves statistical precision, and demonstrates it using a deep learning algorithm to help estimate effects in a set of experiments run inside ASSISTments. [For the full proceedings, see ED593090.]
Descriptors: Courseware, Data Analysis, Causal Models, Prediction, Outcomes of Education, Evaluation Methods, Mastery Learning, Skill Development, Intelligent Tutoring Systems, Statistical Bias, Randomized Controlled Trials, Artificial Intelligence
International Educational Data Mining Society. e-mail: admin@educationaldatamining.org; Web site: http://www.educationaldatamining.org
Publication Type: Reports - Research; Speeches/Meeting Papers
Education Level: N/A
Audience: N/A
Language: English
Sponsor: National Science Foundation (NSF); Institute of Education Sciences (ED)
Authoring Institution: N/A
IES Funded: Yes
Grant or Contract Numbers: IIS1636782; ACI1440753; DRL1252297; DRL1109483; DRL1316736; DGE1535428; DRL1031398; R305A120125; R305C100024
Author Affiliations: N/A