ERIC Number: ED584501
Record Type: Non-Journal
Publication Date: 2013-Nov
Pages: 8
Abstractor: As Provided
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Comparing the Relative Likelihood of Events: The Fallacy of Composition
Chernoff, Egan J.; Russell, Gale L.
North American Chapter of the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education, Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the North American Chapter of the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education (35th, Chicago, IL, Nov 14-17, 2013)
The objective of this article is to contribute to the documented dearth of research on teachers' probabilistic knowledge. Prospective teachers of elementary school mathematics were asked to identify which result from five flips of a fair coin was least likely to occur. Participants, instead of being presented with sequences, were presented with events, that is, sets of outcomes, for five flips of a fair coin. A particular logical fallacy, the fallacy of composition, was used to analyze the juxtaposition of responses and response justifications. As a result, the fallacy of composition was found in the response justifications for both normatively incorrect and correct relative likelihood comparisons. Combing the results of this and prior research utilizing the fallacy of composition demonstrates that logical fallacies are a burgeoning area of research for those investigating relative likelihood comparisons and teachers' probabilistic knowledge. [For the complete proceedings, see ED584443.]
Descriptors: Probability, Preservice Teachers, Mathematics Teachers, Elementary School Mathematics, Mathematical Concepts, Knowledge Base for Teaching, Misconceptions
North American Chapter of the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education. e-mail: pmena.steeringcommittee@gmail.com; Web site: http://www.pmena.org/
Publication Type: Speeches/Meeting Papers; Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
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Language: English
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