The Texas Projection Measure (TPM) has grown out of the state's need to meet the requirements of No Child Left Behind (NCLB). An examination of the state's method of predicting 8th grade mathematics scores reveals that several factors have been ignored in the process of developing the model, including assumptions in its underlying statistical analysis as well as ease of use for its stakeholders. Although the TPM was based on value-added models, it has deviated from that foundation in significant ways. Alternatives are given to the TPM as currently used by the Texas Education Agency (TEA). (Contains 7 tables.)