Differences in the probability of graduating were studied for freshmen and transfer students at a metropolitan university. The study was based on students who arrived at Boise State University for the fall 1989 term (n=2,459). Of this group, 1,692 were new freshmen, and 767 were new transfers. The two groups were similar in gender and ethnicity. Follow-up groups were formed that included only students who returned for at least one additional semester: 1,121 returning freshmen and 501 returning transfer students. These groups were studied at 4, 6, and 10 years after entry. Results show that, in general, variables that were highly significant in predicting graduation at 4 years had less impact by the time 10 years had elapsed. The variables that should be included in predicting graduation remained remarkably stable. These were continuous enrollment, mainly full-time enrollment, and first semester grade point averages (GPA) for both freshmen and transfers. Transfer students had an advantage over new freshmen in reaching graduation. Freshmen closed the gap in their probability of graduating over time, but they never fully caught up. This difference was undoubtedly due in part to the number of credits transfer students brought with them. It was probably also the result of less tangible things, such as clearer goals, increased motivation, and prior experience. First semester GPA probably played the most important role in increasing the odds of graduation. This study confirms that attention should be placed on helping students be academically successful their first semester. (SLD)