Students' expectancies for their future economic outcomes, differences in expectancies between ethnic groups, and the relationship of these expectancies to attributions and self-esteem are examined in two studies (Study 1, N=746; Study 2, N=2,130). An ANOVA was used. Study 2 is part of the first wave of a longitudinal study. Results indicate that African Americans in their first year of college have high expectations for future outcomes; however, this optimism declines significantly during college while optimism of other students remains stable. The studies focus on two possible explanations for the decline in expectancies: (1) the self-esteem hypothesis, which maintains that African American students' evidence decreasing self-esteem following social comparisons between African American students and other students; (2) the external attribution hypothesis, which holds that African American students' increasingly perceive that they personally face external barriers not faced by other students. Results are consistent with the interpretation that it is African American students' perceptions of society that are changing during college, not their perceptions of self. Measures for Study 1 and Study 2 are appended. (EMK)