The number of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) cases has fallen in the past 4 years, and there is disagreement over the cause. Credit has been given to "waiver" programs that resembled Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and to the growing economy. This sort of confusion over program effects is partly a consequence of poor information about what, and when, policies are implemented in the states. Even if state welfare reforms clearly have an effect on caseloads, it is impossible to assign responsibility to any particular provision. The basic conclusions and disagreements of the few systematic studies of the factors affecting AFDC caseloads concern the impact of three types: economic, demographic, and policy. A central problem in deciding whether state waivers account for changes in caseloads is determining what policies were actually implemented. Despite the enormous amount of new information that states must collect and report under TANF, little provides clues about program implementation. The Rockefeller Institute is addressing this issue by examining the implementation of welfare and other social policies through their management systems. State research teams will classify state welfare systems according to goal clusters and determine what the states are actually putting into effect. The initial list of goal clusters includes supporting work and work-related activities; antidependency or welfare avoidance; ensuring correct eligibility decisions; family well-being; influencing family structures and relationships; and minimizing program costs to state governments. (YLB)