A longitudinal study of various measures of creativity was conducted to determine the validity of a number of possible predictors of an arts orientation. Tests of creative thinking, creative personality, divergent thinking, intelligence, and school achievement were administered to above-average fifth-graders (N=23), who also drew pictures based on a common theme. Students then took the ACT Interest Inventory 1 year and 3 years later. Arts interest in sixth grade was predicted by expert ratings of the fifth-grade drawings for artistic merit and scores on creative thinking and creative personality measures. The only fifth-grade measure which predicted arts interest in eighth grade was artistic merit of drawings. Artistic competence in fifth grade was a leading indicator of a developing arts orientation in the eighth grade. The study concluded that: (1) expert ratings of drawings for artistic merit were the best means tested for early identification of artistic talent; (2) problem finding requires skills or abilities that were not assessed by the intelligence quotient measures, but were correlated with achievement and creativity criteria; (3) the divergent thinking exercise used in the study seemed to have a verbal bias that was absent from the creative thinking exercise; and (4) in the long run, many determinants other than thinking skills affect developing career orientations. (Contains 27 references.) (Author/JDD)